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Change something so that nothing changes - What is expected from Putin's new mandate?

2024-05-08 18:11:34Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA LORENZO PICCIOLI
Change something so that nothing changes - What is expected from Putin's
Vladimir Putin

By Lorenzo Piccioli - Formiche.net

The inauguration ceremony of the new term of the re-elected Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is a ritual that deserves to be seen and analyzed with due attention. And maybe even with a greater concentration than the previous four cases.

After all, in past ceremonies there was neither a large-scale conflict, such as the one taking place in Ukraine, which has already entered its third year, nor constitutional reform that opened the door to a third consecutive term for the leader of Russia, ending the so-called "dual government", and further strengthening the already highly personalistic feature of the Russian system of power. A personalization that affects not only the highest peak of power, but also its entire circle.

Now, some figures have assumed the role of "constants" within Putin's power system. For example, one such is Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov or even Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. But also the director of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) Aleksandr Bortnikov, the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin and others.

Although the roles have sometimes changed (before becoming Minister of Defense, Shoigu was the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and then for a short time the governor of the Moscow region; while before taking over the leadership of the SVR, Naryshkin was for 5 years the chairman of the Duma, the Russian Parliament), these "people of the president" constitute the plasticization of the continuity of the regime, as well as of Putin's strong control in the Russian system.

But the start of Putin's fifth term could represent an opportunity to send a signal of change. The swearing-in ceremony, in which the Russian president once again extended his hand to the West, as long as this gesture is in line with Moscow's demands, leaves nothing to the imagination in this sense.

But for several weeks, analysts have suggested the possibility of a reorganization of the government, which symbolizes the beginning of a "new phase". A reshuffle, in which important figures may be dropped. One of the most famous is that of Sergei Shoigu, whose reputation has been greatly damaged by the slow progress of what was until recently called Special Military Operation, and today is the real war in Ukraine. But also the rebellion of the mercenaries of the Wagner Group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin last June.

The recent arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov for corruption is considered an indication that the Kremlin is turning in exactly this direction, both for the "spectacular" ways of the arrest, and for Ivanov's great closeness to Shoigu.

One of the possible candidates to replace Shoigu, as reported by Politico, is Dmitry Patrushev, the current Minister of Agriculture and son of Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.

The selection of successors to the Patrushev dynasty would be in line with the trend followed in recent years by the Kremlin, choosing "new recruits" from among Putin's former bodyguards or from among younger relatives of those who are part of his inner circle, considered as candidates who can be easily kept under control.

The grand celebrations of May 9 commemorating the victory in the Second World War could be the ideal opportunity to announce a change at the head of the Ministry of Defense. But also to emphasize a change of pace compared to previous years in the conflict in Ukraine, at a time when the trend of the latter seems to be less unfavorable for Moscow than in other situations.


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