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The blockade on Iran tests which side will endure the most pain

2026-04-13 19:39:34Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA DAVID E. SANGER
A mural in Tehran

David E. Sanger - NY Times

President Donald Trump's decision to block all Iranian shipments entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, starting Monday morning, creates the next big test in the war with Iran: which side can withstand more economic pain, the new leadership in Tehran or Trump himself?

Almost everything about how this new phase of the war will unfold is expected to be different from what we have seen so far.

Instead of directing missiles and bombs at Iranian military targets, missile positions, and defense industries, Trump will try to choke off the country's vital resource, the oil that accounts for more than 50% of exports and almost all of the government's revenue.

The president’s first hope, according to administration officials, is to force Iran to accept the conditions that Vice President J.D. Vance presented at the peace talks in Islamabad, which Iran rejected, as well as in the negotiations in Geneva before the war began on February 28. The list of conditions includes the surrender of all uranium stockpiles, the final dismantling of nuclear infrastructure, and the relinquishment of control over traffic in the strait.

If Iran does not surrender, Trump still seems to be hoping for what he declared on the first day of the war: that the Iranian population will rise up and overthrow the military-religious regime that has ruled the country since 1979. But this scenario is as difficult as before.

For its part, Iran seems to have chosen to fight in global markets, where it has discovered a new form of power. Knowing that it has lost the military battle in the early weeks, but has performed above expectations in information warfare and in missile and drone strikes on its neighbors, Iran is counting on Trump to have a limited tolerance for political costs.

If not a drop of Iranian oil passes through the strait, prices could rise sharply, with some companies predicting as much as $175 a barrel. Iran is aware of the political effects inflation could have in the US, less than seven months before the midterm elections.

“You will soon feel nostalgia for $4-$5 gasoline,” warned Iran’s chief negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. By Monday morning, however, markets did not appear to be panicking: Brent crude oil prices rose by about 6%, to just above $101 a barrel, but remained below pre-ceasefire levels.

Trump, on the other hand, has tempered expectations for price cuts, saying they "will remain about the same" and could be "a little higher" during the election, a major concern for Republicans.

This is an unprecedented situation. Like the “quarantine” imposed by John F. Kennedy on Cuba in 1962, it is impossible to predict the outcome. At the time, the US was waiting to see whether the Soviet Union would confront or retreat. Nikita Khrushchev chose to retreat.

It now remains to be seen whether Iran's new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will do the same. Without a powerful navy, Iran has little chance in a direct confrontation.

This is another change of strategy for Trump. A few weeks ago, he allowed Iran to sell oil that was already at sea to stabilize the market. But that had no effect, and Trump appeared to be waging a half-hearted war, bombing Iran while letting it make money.

“Iran is getting richer while others are getting poorer,” said Richard Haass, a former senior US official. “The blockade increases economic pressure on Iran. If they want to sell oil, they have to open the strait to everyone.”

The success of the strategy will also depend on the reaction of Iran's main clients, such as China, India, Pakistan and Turkey. It is not clear whether they will put pressure on Tehran.

There is also the risk that Iran will respond by attacking energy facilities in neighboring Arab countries, signaling that if it cannot export oil, then no one should.

There is still uncertainty about how the blockade will be implemented. Trump initially spoke of a total blockade, but later clarified that it would only apply to ships bound for Iran. Goods from other Gulf countries will be allowed to pass, but at high risk.

The strait has been blocked before, but history does not provide a clear precedent for the current situation.

If the blockade is short-term and works, it could be considered a smart move by Trump. But if it lasts, he risks looking like a leader who failed to foresee the consequences of a conflict he thought would last only a few days, now entering its seventh week and the consequences for the global economy have only just begun.

*David E. Sanger covers the Trump administration and a wide range of national security issues. He has been a reporter for The New York Times for more than four decades and has written four books on foreign policy and national security challenges.


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