The European allies of the United States are preparing for an America that is less interested in them, regardless of who wins the presidential election. They may also face old traumas and new problems if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
The election comes two-and-a-half years after the start of Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine, during which Washington has been the biggest contributor to Kiev's support. US aid to Ukraine and commitment to NATO allies could be called into question if Donald Trump wins the US election.
A victory for Vice President Kamala Harris would bring a continuation of current policy, although she would face Republican opposition and growing American public fatigue with the war in Ukraine, which are raising concerns in Europe that American support for Kiev may be waning.
Mr Trump's call for tariffs on US partners is also causing concern in Europe, which is already grappling with sluggish economic growth. But it is not just the possibility of a second Mr Trump presidency that is causing anxiety about the future in Europe.
European officials believe the United States' priorities lie elsewhere, regardless of who wins. The Middle East is at the top of President Joe Biden's priority list right now, but China is the top priority in the long term.
"The central position of Europe in the foreign policy of the United States is different than it was at the beginning of Mr. Biden's political career," says Rachel Tausendfreund, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. "And from that perspective, Joe Biden is the last transatlantic president."
The United States will continue to turn its attention away from Asia, she says. "This means that Europe must progress. Europe must become a more capable partner and better manage its security zone".
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, during the signing of a new defense agreement with NATO ally Britain, said that the United States will focus more on the Indo-Pacific region, "so the question is, will do they (the US) do a lot less in Europe, or just a little less.”
Ian Lesser, an international relations expert at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, says that "above all, Europe is looking for clarity from Washington" and that is missing in a troubled world in which each administration will face other problems. , that will attract her attention. "But the risk of disruption is clearly greater if Donald Trump returns to the White House."
"There is an assumption of continuation of current policies" of America if Vice President Harris wins, he says. Many people who have dealt with policy during Mr. Biden's presidency are likely to remain in office. "We would have a more familiar world, even if the strategic environment brought its own uncertainties."
As the United States and Europe increasingly focus on competing with Asia, the ongoing war in Europe means that "the cost of shifting American attention away from European security issues would be much higher today than it was a few years ago." , says expert Ian Lesser. Europe's ability to deal with this depends on how quickly these problems emerge, he adds.
Europe's underspending on defense has vexed US administrations of both parties for years, although NATO members, including Germany, increased it after Russia's large-scale attack on Ukraine in 2022. NATO predicts that 23 of the 32 member states will meet its target of spending 2% or more of gross domestic product on defense this year, compared with just three member states a decade ago.
During his term from 2017 to 2021, Donald Trump threatened to abandon countries that failed to meet their financial obligations. On the campaign trail this year, he suggested that Russia can do whatever it wants with these countries.
His criticism has undermined trust and worried countries bordering Russia, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an existential challenge. In time, the United States may have a different opinion about this war, while signs of fatigue are beginning to appear in Europe itself.
If Mr. Trump wins, "there are many signs that he will not be interested in continuing to support Ukraine in this war" and may seek to reach a cease-fire agreement or settlement, which may not please Kiev and Europe, he said. expert Rachel Tausendfreund. "There is also no chance that Europe could fill the military gap if the United States were to withdraw support for Ukraine."
"Even if Vice President Harris wins, there is a growing debate on both sides of the Atlantic about the strategy to pursue after the end of the war in Ukraine," says expert Ian Lesser.
President Biden emphasized the need to continue the current strategy in Ukraine during a brief visit to Berlin, where he met with German, French and British leaders.
"We cannot give up aid to Ukraine. We must continue our support," said President Biden. "We must continue support until Ukraine wins a just and lasting peace."
The experience has taught the 81-year-old Biden that "we should not underestimate the power of democracy and the importance of alliances."
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who presented President Biden with Germany's highest medal for his contribution to strengthening transatlantic relations, hopes Americans will heed Mr. Biden's advice.
"In the coming months, I hope Europeans will remember that America is indispensable to us," he said. "And I also hope that Americans will remember that allies are indispensable. We are more than just 'other countries' in the world. We are partners and friends."
Regardless of who wins the American election, the coming years could be turbulent.
"Regardless of the outcome of the election next week, half the country will be angry," says expert Ian Lesser, noting that the chances are high for a divided government in Washington. "Europe will face a very chaotic and sometimes dysfunctional America," he adds. /VOA