This evening is expected to be a monumental night for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Polls have consistently placed them in a clear second place since the election was announced, according to CNN. The fact that they could secure around 20% of the vote would represent a major shift in the German political spectrum. In 2021, they received just 10%.
The recent regional and European elections may be an indication of their continued rise. They finished second in the European Parliament vote and, regionally, in their strongholds in eastern Germany, the state of Thuringia became the first German region to elect a far-right party since the Nazi era.
The party is fiercely anti-immigration and has been classified as a "suspected extremist," which allows for increased surveillance by intelligence services.
Why they won't be in power: The difficulties for this party will emerge after the results and in how the next German government is formed.
They are likely to seek a role in government, but an unwritten rule of German politics essentially rules out any cooperation with far-right parties – known in German as the “brandmauer” – the defensive wall.
Earlier in the election campaign, Friedrich Merz tested the stability of this wall by passing several non-binding immigration laws with the support of the AfD. This move sparked massive protests across Germany.
The most likely outcome is that they will remain outside any coalition, but they will undoubtedly claim that they have been treated unfairly.