
Wisconsin was the state that cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election. Now, both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are ramping up their campaigns in hopes that Wisconsin will be theirs.
After nearly three weeks away from the Badger State, Trump will return to Wisconsin, the campaign announced Thursday.
Wisconsin has increasingly emerged as a key state in the November election. Polls show a clash between Trump and Harris. The FiveThirtyEight tracker has Harris up just 0.2 percentage points as of Thursday. RealClearPolling's aggregator has Trump with the same lead.
Both Trump, Harris and their staffs have increased their trips to Wisconsin in recent months. Trump visited the state earlier this month, making four visits in just eight days. This week, Harris held an event in Brookfield with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, while former President Barack Obama appeared with Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz.
Wisconsin is critical of the "blue wall" Democrats have to maintain the White House. In 2016, Trump was elected President after unexpectedly winning the state by 0.7 percent — a victory that many Democrats said cost Hillary Clinton the election. Clinton did not set foot in Wisconsin during her campaign. Joe Biden was able to take the Badger State back in 2020, achieving a victory by 0.63 percentage points, or about 20,000 votes.
This time, neither campaign is willing to take Wisconsin for granted, said Brandon Scholz, a retired Wisconsin Republican strategist. Trump and Harris, however, are using wildly different strategies to ensure Wisconsin goes their way.
Harris' Wisconsin Strategy
Harris has logged many trips to Wisconsin. She made her first trip to the battleground state just two days after Biden withdrew as a candidate, and she has continued to make inroads as Election Day nears.
Last Thursday, Harris held events and rallies in three different Wisconsin cities, stopping at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee before heading to western Wisconsin for an afternoon event and then appearing before a crowd capacity of more than 4,000 people in the same center where Trump will campaign next week.
"Harris obviously took a lesson from Clinton and put it to good use," Scholz said.
But the cities in which she and her running mate have appeared lead Scholz to believe that the Harris campaign is not trying to sway undecided voters or more moderate Republicans.
Watching Obama and Walz in Madison — which Biden carried with more than 75 percent of the vote in 2020 and Clinton with 70 percent — it seems part of Harris' strategy here is to make sure the base is stable from participation perspective.
“They're going to go to Milwaukee, they're going to go to Madison, and somebody's going to be up in Green Bay. But to me, they're really focusing on the grassroots here in Wisconsin,” Scholz said.
Trump's strategy in Wisconsin
Trump, on the other hand, does not seem to be very focused on strengthening the GOP base. Instead, he has made a number of appointments that include many Democratic counties, such as Dane County, where Madison is located, while also strengthening the Republican vote in the southwest corner of the state, a less popular stop.
"The idea was for Trump to create excitement," Scholz said. "If he can push Republican voters above their 2020 levels, they could contribute more than the 10,000 to 20,000 votes that [Trump and Harris] will need to win the state."
This is Trump's strategy in Wisconsin: He goes in, hits hard, and then wins.
Earlier this month, Trump said, “They say Wisconsin is probably the hardest state to win. I don't think so."
"If we win Wisconsin, we win the presidency," the former president said.
Either way, Scholz pointed out that Wisconsin is still a swing state.