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Trump or Harris, this is how the odds of the candidates change in the betting market

2024-11-05 07:59:16Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Trump or Harris, this is how the odds of the candidates change in the betting
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Betting markets have narrowed sharply ahead of Tuesday's presidential election, eroding Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris as Americans cast their ballots.

Major platforms put Trump ahead of Harris.

However, as Election Day approaches, Trump's chances of victory have faded, and Harris even reclaimed the lead on a platform this weekend.

Betting markets have grown in popularity during this election campaign, with popular apps like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Many betting market predictions of who was most likely to win the election also diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls indicated an incredibly close race for the White House, a few weeks ago the betting platforms clearly put Trump ahead.

But Trump's chances appear to have dwindled. Polymarket put them at 58% on Monday, up from 67% last week; Kalshi put them at 53%, down from 65%.

Another platform rated Harris' chances better than Trump's for the first time in almost a month. The Democrat had a 53% chance of victory, according to PredictI, which gave Trump a 51% chance.

If you went to Polymarket on Monday, for example, and bet on Trump, you'd get $1 for every 58 cents you bet if he wins the election. If you bet on Harris, on the same platform, on the same day, you would get $1 for every 43 cents bet if she wins.

A surprise Iowa poll that unexpectedly put Harris ahead of Trump sent shockwaves through America's poll watchers this weekend. Betting market experts say that participants take into account a number of factors when placing a bet, including the results of such surveys.

In recent weeks, questions have been raised about activity in the betting markets. When it emerged that a man had bet more than $30 million on a Trump victory on Polymarket, he and the platform stressed that it was not an attempt to manipulate the market.

"My goal is simply to make money," the man, who called himself Théo, told the Wall Street Journal, claiming he had "absolutely no political agenda."


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