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The case of Kosovo as a model for Gaza? The adviser to the Israeli prime ministers speaks

2023-11-12 20:58:34Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The case of Kosovo as a model for Gaza? The adviser to the Israeli prime
Alon Pinkas and journalist Garentina Kraja

As Israeli forces continue their military campaign against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and calls for a ceasefire grow, analysts say pressure is already building on Israel to propose a post-war Gaza solution. In an interview for Voice of America, Alon Pinkas, an Israeli diplomat and foreign policy adviser to several Israeli ministers and prime ministers, told colleague Garentina Kraja that an international presence in Gaza, similar to the post-war international administration in Kosovo, could decide the foundations of a new political process as a way out of the conflict in the Middle East.

Voice of America: Mr. Pinkas, in a recent article you point out that there are changes between Israel and the United States regarding the period after the end of the war in Gaza. What do you think these differences are?

Alon Pinkas: Yes, there are differences in approach between the United States and Israel. In the first week (of the conflict), the US sent aircraft carriers, President Biden and the Secretary of State, three times, visited Israel before the differences were seen. For the United States, the main concern at the time was preventing escalation. But it's been a month and the emphasis now is not on escalation, but how the Americans, unlike Israel, see the post-war plan. The Americans are actually telling Israel that in every war, as (military strategist) Carl von Clausewitz teaches us, war is a continuation of politics, but by other means, which means that a political goal is needed, which the resources serve. military. What we are seeing now is a lack of strategic thinking. We are looking at what there is agreement on - to shoot Hamas, destroy Hamas and overthrow Hamas. But what happens the next day? And there are two or three main points where the difference between Israel and the United States currently exists. The US is wondering who will rule Gaza after the war ends. It certainly won't be Israel. It certainly won't be the Palestinian Authority. It certainly won't be Egypt. And it's pretty sure it won't be the United States. Is the US asking Israel if they have thought about this? The answer is no. The second question is, how long do you plan to stay in Gaza? If Israel intends to reoccupy the Gaza Strip, then this changes the whole dynamic of the post-war conversation. And third, how long will the military operation last? The number of victims is such that it will have an impact on the final solution, or on the scenario of the post-war period.

VOA: However, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel will oversee Gaza for an indefinite period of time after the war. You have personally warned against such a solution and proposed alternative solutions, including a model of international presence as in Kosovo, which would rebuild and govern before transferring powers to local institutions. Can you explain how such a model would work?

Alon Pinkas: In interviews with American television, Mr. Netaynahu made a very vague comment that Israel will retain overall responsibility for security indefinitely. I would like to know what that means, and I don't believe that President Biden has a clear idea of ​​what that means. I don't believe that the UN or NATO know what the overall responsibility for security means. If Netanyahu plans to stay in Gaza, he should say so clearly. What I am proposing is something that I have found Americans to be enticing as an idea. They are calling it international force, international intervention. The model is Kosovo, just for the fact that Kosovo is the last example. East Timor is also another example. But Kosovo is a case that people still remember. The idea of ​​a protectorate, a new model, different from the old one after World War II when Africa, Asia and Southeast Asia were being de-colonized. What is clear is that Israel cannot rule and the Palestinians cannot govern and therefore an interim period is needed during which an international force would form a model protectorate that would build, operate and transfer (powers ). It can start in Gaza, but it can expand to include the West Bank and create the foundations of a process, which I don't want to call a peace process, but at least the foundations of a political process. For such a thing, Israel and the Palestinians must agree, while the US has given signs that it agrees alongside the British. To be acceptable to the Palestinians, it must have an Arab component, so that Russia and China do not use their veto if such a plan reaches the Security Council.

VOA: In what organization, or institution, would such international intervention be required? In 1999, in the case of Kosovo, the geopolitical reality was different. Regional structures such as the European Union and NATO were ready to intervene. Where would consensus building take place today?

Alon Pinkas: It is true and I am not making a complete comparison and draw the conclusion from the comparison between Gaza and the West Bank and Kosovo. It was about Yugoslavia, about ethnic conflicts in that region, there were regional powers and other powers. At that time the European Union was consolidating, Russia was weak, China was far from being a world power and the United States during the late 90s was dominating the unipolar system. So I am not comparing the two. What I am saying is that this can happen if there is agreement, meaning if the Palestinian Authority agrees and Saudi Arabia helps fund an international mission, if the United Arab Emirates helps create it, if NATO is willing to listen to civilian experts, because no one expects military force right now. It can also be a United Nations force operating under the supervision of the United Nations. If you tell me there are 27 solid reasons why this won't work, I'll agree with you. But I also have 28 reasons why nothing else has worked. We must be open-minded. I am telling the Palestinians to be open to a peace process, the end of which would result in the birth of their own state. They must be involved in the process and not become rejectors. Don't say no, don't say it won't work, unless they want a new wave of violence in two, three or four years.

VOA: What is the political situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories today and how would you describe it?

Alon Pinkas: There is a complete gap, a complete vacuum. Despite all the differences between Israel, which is a functioning state, the Palestinian Authority, which is an almost non-functional entity, and Gaza under Hamas, which is completely dysfunctional, there is a common denominator, their political leaderships have fallen into a routine, lacking imagination , without a new approach, thinking only about today, not about tomorrow. That's why October 7th happened. So there are very clear weaknesses in the political leadership of both countries. In the case of the Palestinians, we know their political weaknesses and attributes. But in Israel at the moment we have a far-right government, which I don't think will survive the war, this failure and this crisis. The government will fall apart within months, if not sooner. Without entering into speculative discussions, in Israel at the moment there is a government in power that refuses to seriously discuss such an idea. The Palestinian side needs clarity. They want to know how things will end in Gaza before they get involved in a political process.

VOA: Do you think there is still a risk of regional escalation and expansion of this conflict into an all-out regional war?

Alon Pinkas: Absolutely. There are two types of escalation. First, the planned, deliberate escalation of Hezbollah, the Shia militant group in Lebanon, which is heavily armed, supported, financed and armed by Iran, which would make a deliberate decision to escalate the conflict to save Hamas and to create difficulties for Israel. But another equally dangerous form of escalation is accidental escalation. This kind of escalation would be the result of a miscalculation of the intentions of the parties, with attacks and retaliation that inadvertently cause all-out war. In the case of Lebanon, the conflict is even wider, which is why the United States brought reinforcements here.

VOA: What do you think will happen in the future with the region, Israel, the Palestinians? What is the epilogue?

Alon Pinkas: It's hard to see beyond the devastation, the shock, the disbelief about what October 7th looked like. But if there is luck in misfortune, then an event of this magnitude will force the parties to do so. It will take months for the parties to understand that such a situation is unsustainable, that another October 7 can happen again... Saudi Arabia understands that something similar can happen to them, and the US will not want to withdraw in this situation. So I see an opportunity, which I wouldn't bet on, but I still see an opportunity for both sides to start thinking differently.


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