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African Americans and Hispanics are abandoning Biden. Why?

2023-11-12 20:25:08Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA FEDERICO RAMPINI
African Americans and Hispanics are abandoning Biden. Why?
Joe Biden

A round of local elections has given the Democratic Party some breathing room. In particular, we note the victory in Virginia, a swing state with a moderate Republican governor (Glenn Youngkin) who is considered a potential rival of Donald Trump for the presidential race.

In Ohio, the right to abortion has been established. Even in Kentucky, a success of the left is explained at least in part by the campaign to protect the right to terminate a pregnancy.

A scenario dreamed up by Democrats is coming true: If the right-wing assault on women's rights mobilizes the female electorate, Joe Biden's party could win within a year of the White House and congressional elections.

These local election results are in stark contrast to the message expressed by recent national polls: Donald Trump's lead in five of six key states (those states that swing from one party to another and usually decide in the bottom). Suspicion is growing that the problem is really him: Biden. Voices within his party calling for him to withdraw from the race will grow louder. But his unstoppable decline in popularity also reveals a structural problem, the rightward shift of some ethnic minorities.

Behind Biden's continued slide in the polls there is a disturbing phenomenon, not only for the president but for his party as a whole: it is the continued slide towards the Republicans of some segments of ethnic minorities that the Democratic Party considered more loyal. African Americans and Hispanics. Most of these groups remain loyal to the Democratic Party, but their support decreases from one electoral party to another. And in order to stop this exodus of votes, it does not seem that the left has found a concrete analysis of the causes and solutions.

The latest New York Times poll reported that if we had an electoral duel today between Biden and Trump, the latter would win. Breaking it down by ethnic component, the decline in consensus in the black community appears decisive. In these key states in 2016 Trump had won only 6% among African Americans; in 2020 it was slightly higher, rising to 8%. Today, that percentage has nearly tripled, with black voters saying they prefer Trump over Biden in the poll rising to 22%. If these figures were confirmed within a year at the polls, the result would be sensational: for half a century no Republican candidate has won more than 12% of the African-American vote. The slide in support among this category of voters is even more significant given that African Americans were decisive in the nomination of Biden as the Democratic party's nominee in 2020.

Among Hispanics, the increase in votes for Trump was observed as early as 2020 and is now becoming more pronounced. The most authoritative scholar of this phenomenon is Ruy Teixeira, author of the new essay "Where Have All the Democrats Gone?" Teixeira himself became famous 21 years ago with another book, "The Democratic Majority in Development," which predicted a diametrically opposed scenario. In 2002, Teixeira saw an America consigned to the "permanent" political dominance of the left as a result of demographic dynamics: the constant migratory flows were destined to strengthen the very components that voted Democrat.

That book, published at the turn of the millennium, inspired leftist politicians with overconfidence in the "electoral determinism" that was supposed to consolidate their hegemony. It certainly strengthened them in the belief that a policy of openness to migrants would yield considerable electoral effect.

Today Teixeira completely reverses his prediction of 21 years ago. In the new essay, he warns that Latinos are abandoning the Democratic Party and, paradoxically, one of the reasons is the weak policy towards immigrants. In a recent survey, 61% of Hispanics living in Texas say they want to strengthen border police, increase barriers and tighten controls on illegal immigration. Even among blacks, the percentage who are critical of illegal immigrants is growing.

For Teixeira, this position would require the left to return to "normality": historically the Democratic Party, as the representative of the working classes, was against open borders because the influx of immigrants lowered workers' wages, harming and impoverishing above all black workers as well as regular immigrants. Even public resources for welfare, from schools to health care to income supplements, ended up dwindling if shared with new entrants.

The feeling that migratory flows are out of control under the Biden Administration has prompted the federal government to make some adjustments.

But the restrictions are insufficient, and the sense of insecurity is exacerbated by the rise in crime in many American cities: a degradation of public order whose first victims are the less wealthy classes and ethnic minorities.

*Corriere della Sera


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