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Behind the scenes of a secret ballot: 7 candidates and a decision that could change the world

2026-07-30 23:51:58Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Behind the scenes of a secret ballot: 7 candidates and a decision that could
UN

For almost a year, the race to succeed António Guterres has been taking place in the public eye. Candidates have presented their programs, participated in open debates, and outlined their vision for the future of the United Nations.

But now the process enters its most crucial and least transparent phase: the one that takes place away from the cameras. This week, the Security Council begins so-called “straw polls,” informal consultations that traditionally determine who will be recommended for the post of Secretary-General.

In theory they do not choose the winner, but in practice they indicate which candidate is most likely to receive the approval of the Council and then the appointment by the General Assembly.

Whoever takes over the UN will face one of the most difficult mandates in decades. The war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, the increasingly fierce rivalry between the US and China, the economic and financial crises, as well as the difficulties of the multilateral system, have presented the organization with unprecedented challenges.

Diplomacy that takes place in silence

Unlike past elections, the process has become more transparent. Since 2016, candidates have published their platforms, held debates, and answered questions from member states and civil society.

However, when the decisive moment comes, transparency is replaced by closed negotiations. The fifteen members of the Security Council vote on each candidate with three options: “encouraged”, “discouraged” or “no opinion”.

This process is repeated several times until a name emerges that garners enough support. But the number of votes is not the most important element. What really counts is the lack of opposition from the five permanent members of the Security Council – the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom.

Any one of them can block the candidacy through a veto. For this reason, many diplomats consider the process more political than meritocratic. Public programs and debates have their importance, but the final decision is made through discreet negotiations between the world's most powerful capitals.

A race without favorites

Unlike past elections, this time there is no one candidate dominating the race. Among the most well-known names is Argentine Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

He has become a key figure in Iran's nuclear dossier and in managing the crisis over the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine. His supporters praise his negotiating skills, while critics accuse him of making too many concessions to Tehran.

Another important name is former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, who also headed the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. She is seen as a strong figure in the defense of fundamental rights, but her candidacy has been accompanied by political controversy, both from American conservatives and after the withdrawal of official support from the Chilean government.

Also in the running is former General Assembly President María Fernanda Espinosa, an Ecuadorian, who calls for better coordination between the UN's many agencies.

Meanwhile, Costa Rican Rebeca Grynspan, currently at the head of UNCTAD, has focused her campaign on financial reform and more efficient use of the organization's resources.

The list is completed by Guyanese diplomat Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, who would become the first Caribbean woman to head the UN, as well as former Senegalese President Macky Sall, supported by several African countries and committed to a reform of the Security Council.

Recently, Ugandan Olara Otunnu, former UN Deputy Secretary-General and former Special Representative for Children in Armed Conflict, joined the race.

His entry indicates that the race remains completely open and the emergence of other candidates is not ruled out if none of the current names manage to secure consensus.

The great powers will decide

The selection will not depend solely on the personal skills of the candidates. After a European secretary general like António Guterres, many diplomats believe it is Latin America's turn, a region from which some of the leading candidates come.

At the same time, pressure is mounting to entrust the leadership of the UN to a woman for the first time in the organization's more than 80-year history. However, history has shown that these considerations are not decisive.

What matters most is whether the five permanent members of the Security Council are willing to accept the same candidate. The US is looking for a leader capable of pushing forward reforms and dealing with the organization's financial crisis.

Russia aims to avoid a figure it considers hostile after the clashes over Ukraine. China prefers a direction that strengthens multilateralism without interfering in the internal affairs of states. France and Britain seek a figure that preserves the UN's mediating role.

In the end, the objective is not necessarily to elect the best candidate, but one that none of the major powers is willing to block.

That is why the consultations that begin this week are seen as the first test of the five powers' ability to find a compromise. Their outcome will determine not only the name of Guterres' successor, but also the direction the UN will take at a time when the international order is facing its greatest challenges since the end of the Cold War.


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