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"The coming months will be the most difficult in the history of the EU"

2022-09-14 21:24:54Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
"The coming months will be the most difficult in the history of the
A Ukrainian soldier helping a wounded comrade in the Kharkiv region

The well-known European intellectual, Bulgarian researcher Ivan Krastev does not think that the war in Ukraine will end soon. The financial crisis, inflation and energy prices will cause "great turbulence" in the EU.

Deutsche Welle: Mr. Krastev, the Ukrainian military is achieving impressive military victories in the current counteroffensive against Russian troops stationed in Ukraine. Will the war in Ukraine end soon?

Ivan Krastev: The wars of the last decades have ended at the right moment, the fighting was once stopped. This will surely happen in this war as well. There will be a truce, but not real peace. As we are hearing and reading, Russia is preparing "independence referendums" in the territories controlled by Moscow, which de facto means annexation of these territories. Under these conditions, peace talks are impossible.

Russian propaganda claims that Russia has long defeated Ukraine. And that now it is fighting against NATO, which is waging war with the meat for the Ukrainian cannon. Is Moscow right?

In this war, both sides claim to have won. Russia actually started the war as "a special operation", convinced that within a few weeks the pro-Western Ukraine would no longer exist. Based on this, Russia has lost the war, because it has not achieved this goal. The claim that in Ukraine it is was actually fought against the West, it tries to give answers to two questions: Why are the Russians killing people in Ukraine, with whom they lived together until recently? And secondly: Why is Russia not showing the expected military supremacy? The explanation the only one that is plausible for both cases is: Russia fights against the entire West.According to their thesis: The West deceived Russia, Russia is the victim and not the aggressor.

Apparently this stereotype of good Russia fighting against bad Ukraine and the West is very widespread. Russian TV announcer Wladimir Solowjow said something like: Yes, Russians are not very rich, they don't live long, but they fight for the good. Do all Russians think this?

The presentation of Russians as the "chosen people" who will save the world is not a new thing. The new thing is that this idea no longer finds support in Russian society. A consumer society has been created there that is really ready to accept military interventions in space of the former Soviet Union, but is not ready to accept the idea of ​​missionary self-sacrifice. For this very reason, the Russian government tries not to tell people in the big cities about the events of the war. In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the symbol of famous Mr.

Does this mean that the sanctions have an effect on the Russian population?

In the medium term they will certainly have an effect, but so far they have not had any major impact on the everyday lives of ordinary Russians. Affected by them is only the urban middle class and the economic elite, i.e. about ten million Russians who travel abroad. Getting out of Russia has become very complicated. In addition, when they are abroad they are frowned upon. Being on the Russian side, they are the actual losers of this war.

And who are the winners? Another propaganda cliché of Moscow says that the only winners are the USA. Is there anything real here?

Yes, Russian propaganda tirelessly claims that everything that happens in the world is caused by the USA and ultimately leads to the victory of the USA. But, in reality, the economic damage from this war is felt much more in Europe than in the USA. At the same time, Europe painfully feels its dependence on the USA. It is paradoxical, but no one has contributed as much to this addiction as President Putin. Claiming that the US is the winner of the war, Moscow tries to drive a wedge between Brussels and Washington. Russian propaganda repeatedly repeats that: Oil and gas prices in the EU have increased, but the US is not affected by this, because it sells its own liquid gas. They sell their weapons.

In the case of Ukraine, more weapons are donated than sold. Yes, American weapons and the US are actually a key factor in this war. But the way Russia talks about this, it tries to reinterpret everything differently, saying that the US is not only participating in this war, but wanted it to be done and initiated it. But this narrative is not very convincing. Because before the Russian attack, the US was strategically targeting China, and did everything possible to prevent this war.

How will this war affect the upcoming US presidential election?

America is divided on many points of view, and Ukraine is not at the center of public debate. Decisive are the elections for the Senate and the Congress in November. Until two months ago, it seemed that the Democrats would lose the majority in both these chambers of the parliament. This greatly strengthened the position of Donald Trump. One cannot imagine how a future President Trump would happily claim that the Ukraine war was Joe Biden's war. But if Democrats retain control of the Senate and Congress, the question for Republicans is: Is Trump the right candidate?

It is always said that the USA and Russia were on the verge of an atomic war. Do you think so too?

This risk exists, but is currently not very serious. Because the only thing the Russians and the Americans are doing together skillfully is avoiding a nuclear escalation. But the biggest danger comes from the Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Fighting takes place in dangerous proximity to atomic plants, a small mistake or human carelessness would lead to dramatic developments. The use of atomic weapons could happen if Ukraine reaps major military victories. Or if Kiev tried to retake Crimea.

Will Moscow export the war to other countries, to Moldova or the Baltic states?

It depends on the developments of the war in Ukraine. Currently, Russia is trying to avoid large-scale mobilization. Moscow will not in any way send the boys of the urban middle class to the front. Depending on developments in Ukraine, Russia may actually attack Moldova, but not the Baltic states. They are members of NATO, and if they are attacked, then it would be a completely different war.

The Balts, but also the Poles, sounded the alarm in the EU long before Moscow's attack on Ukraine and warned of the dangers coming from Putin, but no one listened. Now the war broke out. What consequences will it have for the EU?

In the first place, the war led to the consolidation of the EU. The attitude of governments and citizens led to the imposition of unprecedented sanctions against Russia. The support for Ukraine is great, but meanwhile tensions have increased within the EU and in certain countries. I fear that the next six to nine months will be the most difficult in the history of the EU.

Now we pay the heavy price of war, but the EU has been affected by other crises before. With this in mind, the war seems to me like a kind of prolonged COVID: The refugee crisis has arrived again, twice as many refugees have come to Europe from Ukraine as during the war in Syria. The financial crisis has also arrived, and there is a risk of instability and inflation.

Europe and Japan have to pay for energy every month about 100 billion US dollars more than a year ago. This huge financial burden causes huge problems. And societies are already tired. There will be more protests like those in Prague and Germany, I think. Different groups have been created during different crises. People who during the financial crisis have ended up on the edge of society, opponents of refugees, opponents of vaccination have come together today, appearing as opponents of the establishment and have put forth their demands. This will cause great turbulence in the EU.

But that's not the worst. In all the crises so far, Germany has been a factor of stability, a rock of granite. But today, Germany is one of the countries most affected by the economic crisis. In addition, Germany's moral legitimacy is questioned especially by Balts and Poles, but also by Czechs. This changed attitude towards Germany, but also towards France, makes efforts to get out of this great crisis even more difficult.

"The coming months will be the most difficult in the history of the

Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev is the director of the Center for Liberal Studies in Sofia and a permanent member of the Institute for Science and Man (IWM) in Vienna.


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