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What remains of Hamas (and Hezbollah) after the elimination of Sinwar

2024-10-18 22:17:06Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
What remains of Hamas (and Hezbollah) after the elimination of Sinwar
What remains of Hamas (and Hezbollah) after the elimination of Sinwar

The militants are halved, Sinwari's brother is making his way. But in the north, Hezbollah resists with the help of four countries

Hamas, in its past, has lost many leaders, but after each beheading it has returned with pressure on the enemy. Of course, then the fighters were in control of the territory, while today Gaza is devastated, with the population crushed in some corners. Over 40,000 dead is Israel's harsh reaction after the October 7 massacre of a year ago. An offensive that undermined the armed wing, weakened it deeply, but has not yet defeated it. On the other hand, the disappearance of the leader can have serious consequences, especially if he has centralized power and remains almost alone in charge.

LEADER

Already in recent weeks, intelligence believed that the management of the militants was in the hands of Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of the number one of Hamas. Born in 1975 in Khan Younis, arrested in '91 by the Israelis and then released after nine months, he became one of the closest associates of the commanders of the al Kassam Brigades, alongside Saad al Arabid and Mohammed Deif.

Over time he imposed himself by making his weight felt in important elections, demonstrating his ability to "settle" relations with other Palestinian and Egyptian groups. The violent end of many members of the hierarchy, combined with the role he achieved, pushed Muhammad higher.

According to some observers, he holds extreme positions, similar to those of Yahya. He also "holds" the hostage chains. The panorama is completed by representatives of the diaspora Khaled Meshal, Khalil al Haya and Musa Abu Marzouk.

To underscore the results, the IDF claimed to have liquidated most of those responsible for the five brigades, 24 battalions and 140 companies that made up the initial deployment. Almost every week, spokespeople revealed the name and position of individual officers eliminated: those involved in drones, motorized aircraft, missiles, covert activities. A list of hundreds of identities.

Those trained cadres who had to carry out operations to thwart the adversaries. With several objectives in mind: causing losses, using hostage blackmail, forcing Netanyahu to accept a cease-fire, causing an all-out conflict involving Iran, which has now lost another partner in which it had invested.

units The

Hamas, on paper, could count on 30,000 members, including militias and full-time volunteers. The Israelis claim to have neutralized about 17,000, plus 1,000 killed in the Jewish state on October 7 and in the following days during the reoccupation of the kibbutz. At least 22 battalions – always according to the IDF version – are no longer battalions.

A CIA assessment dated May believes the movement has suffered a 30 to 35 percent reduction in its potential, meaning much remains in the hands of leaders. In fact, we have seen this repeatedly in recent months, with Israelis forced to return to sectors they considered "recovered".

Mobility, use of ruins as shelters, camouflage, light equipment proved sufficient to keep the fire burning. To date they have fired about 14,000 of the estimated 30,000 "rockets", sufficient supplies even if their use is more complicated due to the presence of Israeli divisions.

And then the tunnels. Their actual extension is a "mystery": we started with 500 kilometers and now there are those who hypothesize twice that. The IDF has claimed 80% destruction, but mujahideen continue to emerge from tunnels to place charges in the back of a Merkava tank or fire RPGs at close range.

The rest

The Gaza Front is mirrored in the Lebanon Front. Hezbollah has already experienced, in an even more traumatic way, the disappearance of its leadership. It faltered for a few days, experienced moments of confusion, but nevertheless returned with its strength, significantly higher than that of Hamas, also because it has concrete and possible support from Iran and other Shiite militias (in Iraq, Yemen, Syria).

It cannot launch attacks - experts say - but it targets Israel with its "bullets", preventing the return of normality. The coming weeks will be the proof of a crisis where certainties have often collapsed.

And we will have indications of whether Israel's military successes will lead to a turning point, as many hope, or whether they will be the beginning of another phase of the endless war. / Corriere della Sera


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