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What Vladimir Putin wants and when the war will end. hypotheses

2022-05-13 20:23:52Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

What Vladimir Putin wants and when the war will end. hypotheses

What does Putin really want? When will the war in Ukraine end? The point of view of some experts, in some cases even his former collaborators, all the hypotheses and objectives of the conflict

By Marco Imarisio, Corriere della Serra 's envoy to Moscow

Nobody thinks of Vladimir Putin anymore, because even before February 24, the analyzes that tried to decipher his strategy did not always give the same results.

But after the failure of the first phase of Special Military Operation, it was just realized that he had no alternative plan. Understanding what the Russian president really thinks and wants has become even more difficult.

So let's try it with the help of some experts, in some cases his former collaborators, who examine the main hypotheses.

analysis

Let's start with political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky, founder and director of the Institute for National Strategy.

"At least once I agree with the US Secret Service. Putin is preparing for a long-term conflict, perhaps with a lower intensity than the current one. It could also declare a state of war, but certainly not a general mobilization. "Perhaps he will use the country's so-called war reserves, another 100,000 men, to use them in the transition from attack to defense in the land corridor near Crimea."

Moreover, a Russia officially at war would be a radical way to divert attention from increasingly serious economic problems.

Military expert

Yurij Fyodorov, one of the few independent military experts, places some interests in the duration of the conflict.

"The president is aware of the fact that Russia is not able to fight for a long time, because human resources and livelihood are running out. So months, not years. But, he will not give up his invading plan by continuing it in stages. First arrival at the administrative borders of Donetsk and Lugansk, then the land corridor with Crimea, then as far as Transnistria. Diplomatic solution will be possible only after achieving these objectives. "In this scenario, the independent variable is represented by a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive, once the military in Kiev is ready to use the highly efficient heavy weapons supplied mainly by the US," he said.

"Put it"

Gleb Pavlovski, who was Putin's adviser to the Kremlin and political strategist during his first two terms as president before his ouster in 2011, is familiar with the president's thinking processes.

"He's the one who decides, period. He placed the invasion against the advice of his inner circle, which hesitated, and it was like a stab in the back of the system on which his power rests. Now, for the first time, he has to face a serious mistake. It is located in a dead end, which will follow to the end. There is no other way. The West is wrong in hoping for the deterrent effect of sanctions. "When he claims he wants to suppress Zelensky, as he reported in his conversation with Roman Abramovich, he is telling the truth."

The points on which Putin does not compromise

Sergei Markov, the Kremlin's foreign policy adviser from 2011 to 2018, also agrees on the last point.

"For territorial loot there will be a greater tendency to negotiate. But from the beginning it was clear that Putin's ultimate goal is regime change in Kiev. And he does not compromise on that. "He wants to impose a new narrative within Ukraine."

All experts, on the other hand, say they are confident of what Putin will not do.

No total war.

"For 20 years, Russian society has been governed by methods of demobilization, effectively promoting the abandonment of any common interest or aspiration. In this situation, general mobilization is the only thing Putin knows he can not afford. The Kremlin's greatest fear is precisely that of a mobilized people. "Because no one can imagine what his answer would be," Belkovski said.


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