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Warships, fighter jets and the CIA: What is Trump's ultimate goal in Venezuela?

2025-10-24 17:10:10Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Warships, fighter jets and the CIA: What is Trump's ultimate goal in
Trump and Maduro

By Ione Wells, Latin America correspondent and Joshua Cheetham, BBC

For two months, the US military has been building a force of warships, fighter jets, bombers, marines, drones and spy planes in the Caribbean Sea. It is the largest deployment there in decades. Long-range B-52 bombers have been conducting “demonstration bombing strikes” off the coast of Venezuela.

Trump has also authorized the deployment of the CIA to Venezuela, as tensions have risen.

The US says it has killed dozens of people in attacks on small boats from Venezuela, which it claims are carrying "narcotics" and "narco-terrorists", without providing evidence or details about the people on board.

The attacks have drawn criticism in the region and experts have questioned their legality.

The attacks are being "sold" by the US as a war on drug trafficking, but all signs suggest that it is actually a campaign of intimidation aimed at removing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power.

"This is about regime change. There's a good chance they won't invade, the hope is that this is about signaling," says Dr. Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House.

He argues that the military buildup is a show of force intended to "instill fear" into the hearts of the Venezuelan military and Maduro's inner circle, so that they will act against their country's president.

BBC Verify has been monitoring publicly available information on the tracking of US ships and aircraft in the region, along with satellite images and photos on social media, to build an idea of ​​where Trump's forces are.

The deployment has changed, so the BBC has been monitoring the region regularly for updates. As of October 23, the BBC has identified 10 US military vessels in the region, including guided missile destroyers, amphibious assault ships, and offshore supply tankers.

Warships, fighter jets and the CIA: What is Trump's ultimate goal in

A $50 million bounty tests the loyalty of the inner circle

It's no secret that the US administration, especially Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would like to see Maduro overthrown.

Earlier this year, he told Fox that Maduro was a "terrible dictator" and when asked if he wanted Maduro to go, he added that the US was working on it. "We will work on that objective."

But even for outspoken critics of Maduro like Rubio, it is difficult to explicitly call for military-backed regime change, something the Venezuelan opposition has long called for.

Donald Trump campaigned against regime change in 2016, promising to “stop the race to overthrow foreign regimes,” and later condemned American involvement in “endless wars.”

Warships, fighter jets and the CIA: What is Trump's ultimate goal in
A protest in Venezuela in July, after Nicolas Maduro declared victory in the presidential election.

The US does not recognize Maduro as president of Venezuela, as the last elections in 2024 were widely rejected internationally and by the opposition in Venezuela as neither free nor fair.

The US embassy in Caracas was closed during Trump's first presidency in 2019.

The US has increased the reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest to $50 million, an incentive for people within his inner circle to hand him over.

But this has not led to any desertion.

Venezuelan law professor and senior fellow at the national security think tank CSIS, José Ignacio Hernández, says $50 million is "nothing" to Venezuela's elites.

"There is a lot of money to be made through corruption in an oil-rich country like Venezuela," he said.

Former Treasury chief Alejandro Andrade earned $1 billion in bribes before being convicted.

Many analysts agree that the Venezuelan military would be key to any regime change, but for them to turn on Maduro and overthrow him, they would most likely seek promises of immunity from prosecution.

Hernández adds: that even the military themselves will think that they are involved in crimes. "They will think, in one way or another, that I am also involved in criminal activities."

Michael Albertus, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who publishes articles on Latin America, is not convinced that the $500 million reward would convince Maduro's inner circle to hand him over.

"Authoritarian leaders are always suspicious of even their inner circle, and therefore create mechanisms to supervise them and ensure their loyalty," he said.

Economic sanctions against Venezuela have worsened the already severe economic crisis, but have failed to convince senior figures to turn against their president.

Why this "politics" is probably not just about drugs

Donald Trump has declared that this is a war against drug traffickers and said that a ship the US hit on October 16 was "loaded mostly with fentanyl."

But fentanyl is primarily produced in Mexico, not South America, and enters the U.S. through the southern border.

“It’s not about drugs,” says Dr. Sabatini. “But he has used the language of the Venezuelan opposition that describes this not just as a dictatorship, but as a criminal regime.”

Since 2020, the US Department of Justice has accused President Maduro of running a drug trafficking and narco-terrorism organization, which he denies.

Trump ka thënë se ka autorizuar CIA-n të kryejë operacione të fshehta në Venezuelë, pjesërisht për shkak të “drogave që vijnë” nga andej.

Venezuela nuk prodhon sasi të mëdha kokaine – kjo ndodh kryesisht në Kolumbi, Peru dhe Bolivi.

Ka pak trafik kokaine që kalon përmes Venezuelës, për të cilin vetë qeveria e saj pretendon se po e lufton.

Një raport i Administratës Amerikane të Zbatimit të Drogës (DEA) i vitit 2025 thotë se 84% e kokainës së sekuestruar në SHBA vjen nga Kolumbia dhe përmend vende të tjera, por jo Venezuelën në seksionin për kokainën.

Shtatë sulmet e para u kryen në Karaibe, që nuk është një rrugë detare kryesore për trafikun e drogës krahasuar me Oqeanin Paqësor, ku u kryen sulmet pasuese.

SHBA-ja nuk ka dhënë detaje me prova, që Maduro drejton një organizatë të trafikut të drogës.

Maduro e ka mohuar vazhdimisht këtë, dhe nga ana e tij akuzon SHBA-në për imperializëm dhe përkeqësim të krizës ekonomike të vendit, përmes sanksioneve.

Ka raste të njohura të njerëzve pranë tij që janë akuzuar.

Në vitin 2016, një gjykatë federale në Nju Jork dënoi dy nipër të gruas së tij për komplot për të importuar kokainë në SHBA.

Hetimi thoshte se ata planifikonin të përdornin një pjesë të parave për të financuar fushatën politike të gruas së presidentit.

Më vonë u liruan.

Forcimi i pranisë detare dhe ajrore të SHBA-së

Kapja e drogës në det nuk kërkon një forcë aq të madhe sa ajo aktuale amerikane, sipas analistëve ushtarakë.

Përveç anijeve amerikane që i kemi ndjekur rreth Puerto Rikos, ku SHBA-ja ka një bazë ushtarake, imazhet satelitore treguan gjithashtu dy anije rreth 75 milje (123 km) në lindje të Trinidadit dhe Tobagos.

Njëra ishte një kryqëzor me raketa, USS Lake Erie.

Tjetra dukej të ishte MV Ocean Trader sipas Bradley Martin, ish-kapiten i Marinës Amerikane, tani studiues i lartë në “RAND Corp”.

Kjo është një anije tregtare e konvertuar për të mbështetur misione të forcave special, duke u përzier me trafikun komercial.

Mund të mbajë dronë, helikopterë dhe varka të vogla.

Warships, fighter jets and the CIA: What is Trump's ultimate goal in
Imazhet satelitore duket se tregojnë një anije të forcave speciale amerikane pranë Trinidad dhe Tobago

Ka një shumëllojshmëri misionesh që mund të mbështesë, përfshirë zbulimin për përgatitje të sulmeve.

Por  Martin thekson se prania e saj “nuk do të thotë domosdoshmërisht që po kryhen apo planifikohen aktivitete të tilla”.

SHBA-ja ka forcuar gjithashtu praninë e saj ajrore në rajon, teksa BBC Verify ka identifikuar një numër avionësh ushtarakë amerikanë nëpër Puerto Riko.

Stu Ray, analist i lartë në “McKenzie Intelligence Services”, thotë se një imazh satelitor i marrë më 17 tetor tregon avionë luftarakë F-35 në pistë, ndoshta F-35B.

Warships, fighter jets and the CIA: What is Trump's ultimate goal in

Këta janë avionë shumë të avancuar “stealth” të vlerësuar për aftësinë e tyre për ngritje të shkurtër dhe ulje vertikale.

Në rrjetet sociale, një pilot privat ndau një video të një droni MQ-9 Reaper, të filmuar në Aeroportin Rafael Hernández në Puerto Riko.

Këta janë përdorur nga SHBA-ja për të kryer sulme dhe zbulim në Afganistan, Siri, Libi dhe Mali.

Earlier in October, BBC Verify tracked three B-52 bombers flying over the Caribbean and near the coast of Venezuela.

The US Air Force later confirmed that the planes had taken part in a "bombing strike demonstration".

Warships, fighter jets and the CIA: What is Trump's ultimate goal in

Flights of B1 bombers and P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft have also been seen on flight tracking platforms.

Footage on social media has also shown military helicopters operating near the coast of Trinidad and Tobago.

Some of them are Boeing MH-6M Little Birds – nicknamed “Killer Eggs” – used by American special forces.

Warships, fighter jets and the CIA: What is Trump's ultimate goal in

What the CIA can do inside Venezuela

When asked if the CIA had received the authority to eliminate Maduro, Donald Trump dodged the question and said it would be "ridiculous" to answer.

He also said the US is "looking at the ground now," referring to possible military operations on Venezuelan territory.

The CIA is viewed with great suspicion by many in Latin America, due to a long history of covert interventions, regime change attempts, and support for right-wing military dictatorships in the past, particularly in Chile and Brazil.

Ned Price, deputy U.S. representative to the United Nations and former senior CIA analyst and advisor at the State Department, said the CIA's covert actions can take "many forms."

"They could be information operations. They could be sabotage operations. They could be financing opposition parties. They could go as far as overthrowing a regime. There are many options between low and high level."

By the US's own definition, the operation could even include Maduro himself.

Dr. Sabatini says that, since Venezuela is not a major drug production hub, there are no cocaine or fentanyl labs to "destroy," but there are airstrips or ports that the US could eliminate.

"If Trump wants to be aggressive, he can send a missile to a military barracks. There is good intelligence that shows that certain sectors of the military are involved in cocaine trafficking."

Or it could be a "quick strike" situation, where the Americans try to capture Maduro or some of his subordinates and bring them to justice in the US.

The big question, he argues, is how long Trump is willing to keep so many US military assets stationed in the Caribbean.

If the main purpose of this military buildup is to threaten Maduro, it is not clear whether this is enough to encourage defections.

If this goes as far as a real attempt to overthrow the Maduro regime by force, it is difficult to determine what the outcome will be.

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