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Will the CDU abandon Chancellor Merz?

2026-09-19 22:11:14Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA JENS THURAU
Will the CDU abandon Chancellor Merz?
Freezing temperatures in northern Finland, a chilly atmosphere in Berlin and no solution on the horizon: Chancellor Friedrich Merz was on the northern tip of Europe at the start of the week.

After the CDU's crushing defeat in the Saxony-Anhalt elections, many government officials are questioning Chancellor Friedrich Merz's position. However, no internal rivals have come forward.

Earlier this week, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) was in Rovaniemi, in northern Finland – almost 1,800 kilometers north of Berlin – but he could not escape the unrest that has gripped the German capital. Representatives from various European countries had gathered there for the “Arctic Summit” to discuss raw materials, geopolitics, security and climate change. These are issues of enormous importance, and the Chancellor called on policymakers in Germany to give them the same importance – certainly more than his own future as Chancellor.

When asked by reporters about the atmosphere in Berlin, Merz stated that, while he understood the heated debate around him in Germany, the issue at hand – the future of Europe – was much more urgent: “That’s why I’m trying to convince my friends, my political party and my parliamentary group that this is important – much more important than some of the internal political debates we’re having.”

Government popularity at historic low

“Some internal political debates”: This refers to discussions, rumors and statements discussing whether Merz remains the right person to lead the German government. Less than a year and a half after taking office in May 2025, public approval of the federal government has fallen to an all-time low. Most recently, the CDU – the chancellor’s party – suffered a heavy defeat in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt.

And in a few days, another heavy defeat seems to be approaching in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. As state elections in that region approach, the chancellor's party is at an all-time low in the polls, with just 7%. Even the possibility of not passing the 5% electoral threshold no longer seems impossible. In any case, this is likely to be the worst result the CDU has ever recorded in a state election.

Does Merz explain difficult reforms poorly?

State parliamentary elections held earlier this month in Saxony-Anhalt were won by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party classified as "proven far-right" by the intelligence agency of that central German state.

Didn't Merz promise, before taking office, to halve the AfD's vote share? Instead, it was Merz's own conservative party's vote share that was halved in Saxony-Anhalt, and the Berlin political establishment is asking: is it Merz's fault? Is this due to his often blunt and crude communication style, or to his poor explanation of major reforms, such as the restructuring of the public pension system?

Members of the government are openly expressing their lack of confidence in Merz's cabinet. Education Minister Karin Prien (also from the CDU) told the ARD network: "I think the impression has been created that the chancellor - and also we in the CDU - are not showing the necessary sensitivity towards many people. And that has to change."

This is an important point: Merz is often perceived as intemperate – a view that is often expressed. The planned pension reform, for example, entails severe cuts for many people, yet Merz often seems impatient when talking about it. As recently as July, the chancellor complained publicly that the attitude of many citizens towards the “four-day work week and work-life balance” could endanger the country’s prosperity. Critics worry that, in such a climate, it is difficult to implement difficult reforms.

After the microphones and cameras are turned off, government representatives speak more openly. The loss of confidence in the chancellor herself is seen as practically irreparable and a change is considered necessary – this is the prevailing opinion among many government officials. Even the junior coalition partner, the SPD, is alarmed.

Dirk Wiese, the SPD's parliamentary secretary general, told broadcaster Welt TV: "It really seems that nerves are a bit tense within the CDU at the moment." He added: "I can only call on our coalition partner again to really get back on track and try, together with us, to improve things."

Two candidates: Markus Soder and Hendrik Wust

The central question in all these debates is this: if the unionist parties — made up of the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU — conclude that Merz is no longer a suitable candidate for chancellor, who could succeed him? The name of Markus Söder, the CSU leader and state premier of Bavaria, is often mentioned. However, he does not hesitate to be provocative — even towards the CDU — which makes him unpopular with a wide audience.

Another possible candidate is Hendrik Wust, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia (CDU), Germany's most populous state. He has led a coalition with the Greens for more than four years with some security and without major friction, but has so far shown little desire to move to Berlin. After all, Wust is aiming for re-election next April, when North Rhine-Westphalia is scheduled to hold state elections.

From a procedural point of view, a change would not pose a major problem if there was mutual agreement: after a chancellor resigns, the Bundestag can appoint a successor by a majority vote. The removal of the current leader against his will is only possible through a “constructive vote of no confidence”: Wüst or Söder would have to openly challenge Merz — a scenario that no one currently foresees.

Perhaps that is why the eight state premiers belonging to the CDU issued a joint statement on Wednesday, reaffirming their support for Merz. The statement said: “Citizens can count on us to address their problems.” “As state premiers, we want – and will – contribute to this effort side by side with the federal chancellor.”

A possibly crucial meeting on Sunday evening

No serious challenger has emerged against Friedrich Merz, and he is not known for giving up easily. That is why leading conservative politicians continue to support him. For example, the premier of the state of Hesse, Boris Rhein (CDU), told the magazine “Der Spiegel”: “What our country needs now is not personnel debates, but decisive action and bold reforms.”

According to rumors circulating in Berlin political circles, Merz intends to convene the CDU executive committee – made up of 22 leading conservative figures – in Berlin on Sunday evening, as soon as the results of the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election are announced. He plans to ask the committee whether he still has the trust of his party or not.

His schedule for the coming week underscores the seriousness of the situation: he has canceled a long-planned trip to attend the United Nations General Debate. Merz is not even traveling to New York as originally planned, because his presence in Berlin is essential, according to government sources. / DW


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