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Before changing the regime, you have to eliminate 2,000 of them: The key role of the Revolutionary Guard, a general instead of Khamenei?

2025-06-19 16:47:03Fokus SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard

Greta Privitera - Corriere della Sera

The envelopes, bearing the logo of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), one of the fundamental pillars of the Islamic Republic, read: "Prepare against him with all the power and war horses you have, to frighten the enemy of Allah."

This is verse 60 of Surah Al-Anfal, “The Plunder.” During these seven days of exchanging missiles between Benjamin Netanyahu and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the scenarios discussed for the future of the Middle East, which are more like wishes, their name, that of the Pasdarans, is often mentioned.

Rumor has it that the Supreme Leader has transferred a significant portion of his powers to the IRGC Command Council. This will be a precautionary measure to ensure that the management of the war continues even if he is killed.

There are two hypotheses where the Revolutionary Guard is seen as the protagonist.

The first keeps them in power: The Ayatollah is forced to step down, or is eliminated, and an IRGC general takes over the country, perhaps by making a deal with the United States, guaranteeing the end of the nuclear and missile program.

An outcome that could satisfy Netanyahu and his friend Donald Trump, who would present it as mission accomplished. This solution resembles the fate of Hosni Mubarak's Egypt.

In 2011, during the “Arab Spring,” he was supposed to hand over power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which took over the country. For many Iranians, this is one of the worst-case scenarios, because it would preserve the “status quo,” which means: oppression, zero rights, and gender apartheid.

The second hypothesis is the elimination of the Islamic Republic. What Saeid Golkar, an Iranian political scientist and IRGC expert, calls “a real regime change.”

"If among the goals of Israel and now the Americans is regime change, they must eliminate everything that is the regime. This means eliminating Khamenei and the high ranks of the Pasdaran: So far they have eliminated 25 of them," Golkar said.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard consists of about 180,000 members. 2,000, Golkar explains, are very influential. Of these, 200 are in charge.

"2,000 of them must be eliminated, the rest can be convinced to join the regular army. An operation that cannot be done with missiles from the sky, but that requires commandos on the ground. At the moment there are no signals that make us think about something like that, but given the speed with which configurations change, anything is possible," says the political scientist, who does not believe that the hypothesis of a betrayal by the generals is realistic.

The loyalty of these men to the Revolutionary Guard is essential to the existence of the regime: therefore they will most likely not abandon it.

There is a compromise between the military, an economic empire, and a religious order. Only those from Shiite and conservative circles can join, with the exception of a few cases with Sunnis.

The Revolutionary Guard Corps was founded in April 1979 at the behest of Khamenei, a few months after the founding of the Islamic Republic.

They are not ordinary armed forces: they were created to protect, almost like private guards, the new "owners" of the country: the ayatollahs.

Ruthless, they are also tasked with keeping the regular army under control and eliminating anyone loyal to the old dictatorship or opposed to the revolution. They imprison, torture, and hang members of radical leftist groups like the MEK and the Tudeh Party.

The Revolutionary Guard was transformed into a more conventional military force during the war with Iraq, which lasted from 1980 to 1988.

After the war, with the rise of Khamenei as Supreme Leader, the IRGC expanded and gained more and more power, incorporating the Basij troops, a volunteer militia for domestic situations, and the Quds Force for operations abroad. In the 1990s, the IRGC's influence extended to the economy, politics, and even construction. They became a fearsome empire and much hated by the population, Correiere writes.

Golkar explained that to keep the Pasdaran under control, Khamenei has built a control system that leaves no room for error. Three ruthless and precise levels to guarantee uncompromising loyalty.

•Counterintelligence: every soldier, every officer is under constant surveillance.

•Ideological surveillance.

•Privileges: higher salaries and, above all, access to more lucrative public contracts.

An Iranian insider told Corriere that Khamenei is unlikely to give in to American demands and the IRGC could back him. The ayatollah could follow Saddam Hussein's example of moving from one place to another. According to the source, if he were to be killed, the regime would risk collapsing, as it is a highly personal system, with everything revolving around his image.

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