ANALYSIS/ Starmer, don't rush to copy Meloni for Albania

By Alexander Horne - Spectator.co.uk

One of the first things Keir Starmer did when he entered Downing Street in July was abandon the previous government's partnership with the camps in Rwanda. The Prime Minister said that the scheme relied on by Rishi Sunak was a costly scam. But now it appears that the British Prime Minister is considering an asylum processing scheme of his own, which could lead to migrants being sent to Albania.

Speaking ahead of a visit to Rome where he met Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Starmer said he was "interested" to see how Italy's migrant processing scheme could work with Albania. He revealed that he had already had some discussions with Meloni about how the two could "work together against irregular migration".

Meloni signed an agreement with Albania last year that allows Italy to send some asylum seekers to the country to process their claims. The success of this agreement has yet to be tested (as it has not been fully implemented), but Meloni is said to have halved the number of migrants arriving in Italy this year.

Starmer is facing considerable pressure to ban small boat traffic. More than 23,000 people are said to have crossed the Channel this year and 8 people died over the weekend trying to make the journey. Could a deal with Albania be more successful than the government's ill-fated (not to mention expensive) scheme with Rwanda?

The biggest challenge to the Rwanda deal was always likely to come from the courts. A High Court hearing was scheduled when Starmer's Tory predecessor Rishi Sunak announced his ill-fated plan. Even if Sunak had won the case in domestic courts, he would still face a lawsuit at the European Court of Human Rights. Given the Supreme Court's initial ruling, which concluded that Rwanda was not a safe place to send asylum seekers, it was hard to predict a successful outcome in Strasbourg.

It was suggested that Sunak's deal on Rwanda was set up in part to draw a dividing line with Labor and potentially set up a pre-election clash with the Strasbourg court. This did not work on either front. The electorate did not believe Sunak's claims on immigration, and he was also forced to admit that the government had no plans to deport anyone to Rwanda before the election, despite prioritizing the controversial law designed to allow deportations. Indeed, it never felt like the scheme was a practical way to "stop the boats".

In contrast, Meloni's deal with Albania is much more pragmatic than the Rwanda scheme and has some significant differences. First, only asylum seekers coming from countries that Italy considers safe will be processed in Albania, and the country will only be used for processing applications. Those with successful claims will not be required to stay there. Secondly, Albania is a member of the Council of Europe and is bound by the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Therefore, it could not be argued that the outsourcing of claims to Albania would act as a means of circumventing legitimate claims under the ECHR.

When this scheme was announced, it was reported that, under the agreement, roughly 3,000 people a month trying to reach Italy by sea would be detained at two processing centers near the northwestern Albanian port of Shengjin, while their asylum claims would be processed. . These centers will be paid for and funded by the Italian government and will operate under Italian law. External security will be provided by the Albanian government.

It has also been noticed that the cost of Albania's scheme has not yet been made public. Estimates in the Italian press put the figure at around €650m (£548m) between 2024 and 2028. So far, no migrants have been sent to Albania and it is suggested that none are expected to arrive until later in the autumn.

The United Kingdom government already has two agreements with Albania. The first is an agreement that Albania will take back its nationals who are found to be in breach of UK immigration rules. The second is an agreement for the return of Albanian prisoners of British prisons to their country (in exchange for UK support to help modernize the Albanian prison system). However, it is worth noting that any new scheme with Albania would not be without controversy and that the country is not without problems.

The Oxford University Migration Observatory reported that in 2022, 16,000 Albanian nationals applied for asylum in the United Kingdom, accounting for 16% of all asylum seekers that year. Many of these claimants arrived in small boats. Between 2021 and 2022 a large part of them (48%) were successful - despite the Home Office assessment that Albania is a "safe and prosperous country". Most of the successful claims were made by women. The migration observatory notes that in 2022, 12% of Albanian citizens arriving by small boats referred to the modern system of slavery in the United Kingdom.

Surprisingly, the Italian-Albanian agreement has already been criticized by human rights organizations. They are concerned that the plan could result in asylum seekers being held in camps in Albania, leading to arbitrary detentions. Amnesty International has also raised concerns about conditions in Albania for LGTB+ people and violence against women and girls.

Whether Albania's scheme works in practice remains to be seen. Critics argue that this is just another attempt to discourage migrants from coming to Europe, for fear of ending up detained at a processing center in one of the continent's poorest countries.

It is also likely that court cases will be taken by vulnerable asylum seekers arguing that Albania is not a safe country for them. Giorgia Meloni has already admitted that pregnant women, minors and other vulnerable people will not be sent there. Furthermore, it is not entirely clear what will happen to asylum seekers who fail to obtain asylum. It has recently been suggested that even those who are rejected for asylum will be returned to Italy and placed in detention centers until they can be repatriated.

Starmer should be well advised to see how the deal will work in practice before committing any public money to yet another ambitious asylum scheme. However, the mere fact that he might be considering such an idea proves that the issue of illegal immigration remains an urgently high priority and one that will not be easily resolved.