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Americans are turning against Trump

2026-08-05 18:24:56Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA NGA DAVID A.GRAHAM

Fundamental changes in the way Americans vote are rare, but predictions that they have occurred are not. Almost as soon as Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidential race in November 2024, people began saying that the election represented a new era.

"Trump just reshuffled the entire political map. Democrats have no 'easy way' to fix it," NBC News reported.

The election had been very close. Trump won slightly more electoral votes than Joe Biden in 2020 (312 to 306), but he also won fewer total popular votes and a smaller percentage of the vote.

This was still important because it was the first time in three attempts that Trump had captured a majority of the electorate, but the case for realignment depended less on raw numbers than on demographic divides.

The Republican Party had strengthened its grip on the white working class and had historically had good results with young voters – especially young men – and with Hispanic voters.

Writing in The Atlantic in May 2025, pollster Patrick Ruffini argued that a new political era had begun, in which Trump had broken the Democrats’ strong grip on minority voters. “The working-class reorganization that helped Trump win in 2016 would not stop with white voters.

"In 2020 and 2024, the realignment came for non-white voters," he wrote. "In an era of nationalized politics and increasing polarization, the social base for Democratic majorities is looking increasingly tenuous."

The Democratic Party’s problems remain very real, but for now, Trump and the Republican Party have more serious problems. The most obvious is Trump’s deep personal unpopularity. In the current polarized and dyspeptic political environment, all presidents seem to be unpopular, but Trump is in a different category.

A CNN poll released last week measured Trump at 34 percent approval, matching the lowest level he reached in that poll after the Jan. 6 uprising. However, that was better than his performance in the AP-NORC poll, which found his approval at 33 percent, just one point above his 2017 low. Quinnipiac University found Trump at 32 percent, the lowest ever in that poll.

These general blows are ugly enough, but digging into the poll results shows particular deterioration with the particular groups that were supposed to be at the center of Trump's reelection in 2024.

Merrni parasysh votuesit e rinj. Kamala Harris fitoi një shumicë të vogël prej tyre në vitin 2024, një rënie e madhe nga diferenca prej 25 për qind që Biden gëzonte katër vjet më parë. Sondazhi i të Rinjve të Universitetit Yale zbuloi në maj se 68 për qind e votuesve të moshës 18 deri në 22 vjeç dhe 72 për qind e votuesve të moshës 23 deri në 29 vjeç nuk e miratuan Trumpin.

Echelon Insights zbuloi gjithashtu se votuesit më të rinj nuk e miratojnë Trumpin më shumë sesa popullsia e përgjithshme – numri ka rënë me 37 për qind që nga fillimi i kësaj administrate. Sondazhi nga Instituti i Politikës i Harvardit zbuloi se votuesit e rinj janë veçanërisht skeptikë ndaj zgjerimit të pushtetit presidencial dhe pretendimeve për “emergjencë kombëtare” – dy elementë kryesorë të qasjes së Trumpit ndaj qeverisjes.

Një arsye pse numrat e Trump kanë rënë kaq shumë midis të rinjve është performanca e tij e dobët midis burrave të rinj. Një shpjegim popullor ishte se një Parti Demokratike e feminizuar dhe e zgjuar i kishte larguar ata dhe i kishte hedhur në krahët e Trump dhe një manosfere në rritje të ndikuesve.

Në masën që kjo ishte e vërtetë, ishte kalimtare. Këta votues janë ende të kujdesshëm ndaj demokratëve, por ata janë mërzitur edhe me Trumpin. Sondazhi i të Rinjve të Yale zbuloi se burrat nën 30 vjeç ishin një nga dy grupet që ishin kthyer më shumë kundër Trump që nga vjeshta e kaluar.

Trump gjithashtu po humbet mbështetje midis votuesve të zinj dhe hispanikë, dhe veçanërisht burrave, siç raporton Bloomberg Government. Në vitin 2024, Trump fitoi pothuajse gjysmën e votuesve hispanikë, por sondazhet tregojnë se republikanët marrin 27 deri në 35 për qind mbështetje në zgjedhjet e mesit të mandatit, që do të ishte performanca e tyre më e keqe me grupin që nga viti 2018 i valës demokrate.

Equis, një anketues i fokusuar në demografi, zbulon se miratimi i latino-amerikanëve për Trump është më i ulët se ai i votuesve jo-latino. Një sondazh i majit zbuloi se një e katërta e hispanikëve që votuan për Trumpin në vitin 2024 nuk do ta bënin përsëri këtë.

Ky rënie ka arritur edhe tek mbështetësit kryesorë të Trumpit. Një shqyrtim i të dhënave të sondazheve nga New York Times zbuloi në qershor se pikëpamjet e votuesve të bardhë të klasës punëtore për mënyrën se si presidenti po e trajtonte ekonominë po binin.

Gjatë dy viteve të para të mandatit të tij të parë, këta votues e vlerësuan atë më lart se popullsia e përgjithshme; tani e vlerësojnë shumë më keq. Në shkurt 2016, Trump u mburr me mbështetjen e tij midis votuesve më pak të arsimuar, duke thënë: “Unë i dua ata që janë pak të arsimuar”.

They don’t want him back: Echelon finds his approval rating has fallen to 41 percent among those with a high school education or less. Polls from the Institute for the Study of Modern Authoritarianism reveal a shrinking Trump base and fewer personal connections to Trump, which is a particular problem for a personalist leader and movement. Republican strategists are now worried that even hard-line GOP voters may not turn out in November, according to The Washington Post.

As polling analyst G. Elliott Morris has written, there were several compelling explanations for Trump's victory in 2024 that did not involve realignment, including the lingering effects of the pandemic, global sentiment against the incumbent government, and the unique dynamics of Biden's poor decision to run and his late exit from the race.

But the main one was inflation. Americans were angry with the Democratic Party because of constantly higher prices. Now Trump is losing support for the same reason. Not only has Trump failed to stop inflation, as he promised — in June, it reached 3.5 percent — but his decisions, especially the Iran war, have driven up prices.

Voters were willing to give Trump a chance because of their disgust with Biden. Now they’re seeing the results and they don’t like them. That was perhaps predictable. Although some observers believed a radical shift had occurred, Brookings Institution scholar (and Atlantic contributor) Jonathan Rauch concluded on November 9, 2024, that the result did not represent “a pro-MAGA realignment or a sweeping rejection of Democrats.”

Rather, these were ordinary elections.” He added, prophetically, “While Republicans undoubtedly scored a clear victory, they may be tempted to claim a stronger mandate than voters intended to give them – and they may respond with policies that are more extreme and destructive than the public wants or expects.”

Now the realignment looks almost as bleak as the GOP's chances in the midterm elections.


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