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Why are extreme floods occurring in the Mediterranean region, new study has the answer: Albania is also at risk

2025-10-30 18:14:23Aktualitet SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Why are extreme floods occurring in the Mediterranean region, new study has the
Floods in Emilia-Romagna

A new study from the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change has revealed the mechanism that favors extreme flooding in the Mediterranean region.

According to researchers, the interaction between the sea, stationary cyclones and mountainous terrain creates a “no-exit” effect, which traps moisture for long periods and leads to record rainfall. This happened in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, in May 2023, where floods caused 17 deaths and at least 8.5 billion euros in damage.

The study was published in "Scientific Reports" and according to the study coordinator, Enrico Scoccimarro, three main factors determined this disaster.

The first is a stationary cyclone at a certain position over central Italy, which generates persistent winds that blow over the sea surface for a long time over the Adriatic.

The second factor is the sea, swept by constant winds, which loads the air column with moisture, and the third factor is the Alps and Apennines mountains, which blocked this air flow over the region, creating convergence and continuous precipitation.

Under these conditions, the air was constantly replenished with water vapor, producing heavy rain for days, an event that is expected to occur only once every 500 years.

Experts warn that this mechanism could be repeated in other regions with similar orographic conditions, such as the coasts of Albania, Occitania, Provence or Valencia.

"These particular conditions can occur in other parts of the Mediterranean, for example, near the coast of Albania, in the case of stationary cyclones over central Italy, or even in Occitanie and Provence (France) or Valencia or Catalonia (Spain) in the case of stationary cyclones in the western Mediterranean basin. In these regions, the three aforementioned actors can appear on stage together and create a similar, sad spectacle," says Scoccimarro.

Rapid warming of the Mediterranean increases the air's capacity to hold moisture and amplifies the risks of extreme precipitation.

The researchers propose a new parameter, "cyclone density stability," to improve predictions of these events, which are expected to become more frequent and violent in a warmer climate.


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