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The population in the country drops significantly, INSTAT "hides" the data

2023-06-02 08:58:15Aktualitet SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The population in the country drops significantly, INSTAT "hides" the
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Population statistics is the most important of all the others, as all other calculations and projections for the present and the future are made on its basis.

INSTAT, after postponing the development of the Census three times in a row, is reluctant to publish the annual population statistics.

From 2015 to 2019, annual population statistics are published in February.

In 2020 it was published on March 3, in 2022 on May 7 and in 2023 it was scheduled for publication on May 23, but INSTAT announced the indefinite postponement of the publication, as it did not give a specific justification to "Monitor's" request for this purpose.

"The publication of the population was planned for May 23 and was not planned for another date", said INSTAT in the response to "Monitor". Another date has not been published in the Instat calendar as usually happens when the publication does not come out on the predetermined date.

According to INSTAT's methodology, annual population calculations are based on the generation component method. This is a standard demographic method that uses a variety of data sources for the basic components of population change as follows:

1-Natural Addition (births and deaths). As a starting point for the calculation of the resident population, the number of the resident population as of January 1 of the previous year is considered.

How much this population has grown in a year is taken into consideration, births during the 12-month period have been added to the population, deducting deaths.

2-Net Migration. According to INSTAT, the movement of people entering and leaving the country (international migration) is the most difficult component to measure, given that Albania does not yet have a population register.

In this way, INSTAT uses the best "proxy" data for the assessment of migration, based mainly on the data collected by the migration module through the labor force survey combined with the population projection coefficients 2011-2031.

Cross-sectional data published earlier indicate a significant population decline during 2022.

In a hypothetical scenario with zero immigration, the population of Albania has increased by only 0.02% by 2022, as the natural increase was only 690 people, while in the first quarter of 2023 the natural increase turned negative due to the high drop in births.

But the immigration component is a fundamental factor in the population statistics, since the amount affects our country more than the natural increase. Last year, immigration was strong. There were only about 32,000 asylum seekers in EU countries and Great Britain, not counting those fleeing the country with work contracts, family reunification and through lotteries.

The impact of immigration on the population is calculated based on net immigration, which measures the difference between those who left the country and those who returned. Data on net immigration have not yet been released for 2022, but for 2021 this indicator was 32 thousand people.

In January 2022, the population of Albania was 2,793,592 or 36,149 inhabitants less than on January 1, 2021 with an annual decrease of 1.3%.

Trade businesses raised the alarm this year that the decline in population has been strongly reflected in consumption. This was also evident in public transport in Tirana, where companies have reported a drop in passengers by almost 40% by 2022.

Also, the imports of wheat, sugar and other articles in the country have suffered a sharp decline from 30 to over 40% in the first 4 months of 2023. Import companies claim that the reason is the decline of the population, especially the departure of young people who are also the biggest consumers.

The economic and demographic developments of our country are at a stage where the exact figure of the population living in the country and the housing inventory are urgent.

Interest groups, politicians, businesses and organizations find it difficult to develop accurate projections, as the country's population appears to be smaller than reported in official figures.

On the other hand, all free funds in the economy are concentrated in the construction sector, at a time when the inventory of empty housing is very high.

Since the last year when population and housing were recorded in 2011, the country's demography has undergone major changes due to emigration and internal movements. Indirect measurements of INSTAT suggest that 230,000 to 600,000 people have left the country during the last decade.

During this period, there were large displacements of the population from the districts towards the center of the country. The government, which is the largest operator in the economy, seems to be making investments in some areas that in the next ten years will not have any residents.

The Institute of Statistics, which is the main producer of data for our country, estimates that knowing the number and structure of the population by age and gender is vital, both at the national and local levels, as well as within different communities.

Without national and local information on the population, its characteristics, education, employment status and health, our public services and businesses cannot serve our communities as well as possible.

The business community is therefore quite worried, especially this year, where there is a more aggressive increase in the emigration of young people, so much so that in some companies, consumption has suffered a strong decline for this reason as well.

The President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry Nikolin Jaka said that the inaccuracy of the data or the difficulty in providing statistics on human capital is making it difficult for businesses in Albania.

He added that, human capital, professional education is becoming more and more one of the barriers that are making it difficult for entrepreneurship, which is faced every day with phenomena such as; lack of skilled labor, population aging and emigration. /monitor


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