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ANALYSIS/ A Champion of surprises: Qualification limit and algorithm calculations

2024-11-06 17:29:15Sport SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
ANALYSIS/ A Champion of surprises: Qualification limit and algorithm
City, a failure

Who knows if the algorithm predicted the victory of Milan in Madrid against Real or the great success of Sporting Lisbon against Manchester City... The fact is that, although we must be careful as we have not yet passed the halfway mark, this new Champions, which was expected to favor the big teams, is putting the main favorites in difficulty little by little.

All this is thanks to the "underdogs", the teams that were considered weak before the start, but that have shown themselves to be able to block the way of the opponents, theoretically stronger. Thus, looking at this partial ranking, it is understood that Amorimi and his Sporting team have already secured 10 points, while teams like PSG, Bayern Munich or Atletico Madrid still have a long way to go to catch the train of the first eight and, to be honest, little chance of achieving it.

CURRENT RANKING

But let's go back for a moment to the algorithm, which at the beginning of the Champions League had set the quota of 16 points as the threshold for direct qualification. Trying to imagine the path from now to the end, this prediction seems accurate. Or better: with 17 points, qualification is almost certain, while with 16 points, the goal difference, the importance of which was talked about from the beginning, must also be taken into account.

ANALYSIS/ A Champion of surprises: Qualification limit and algorithm

More than the number of points needed, it's who can achieve them that surprises. Sporting, as mentioned, after the victory over City, has a favorable calendar and is already in the quota of 10 points. Likewise, Milan, currently with 6 points, but who have matches available for them (Crvena Zvezda and Girona at home, Slovan Bratislava and Dinamo Zagreb on the transfer). Then, some well-known names such as Liverpool, City, Barcelona, ​​Inter, and Dortmund, which although it is not an "underdog", was not considered among the main favorites at the beginning.

ANALYSIS/ A Champion of surprises: Qualification limit and algorithm

The group is further expanded with the teams that have achievable points. Here are Juve and Aston Villa, Lille and Bayern Munich (distant, but with a favorable calendar, except for PSG), Arsenal and Real, Atalanta, Stuttgart and PSG. Everyone has a handful of opportunities that they must use in order not to end up in the "re-election" category.

SURPRISES

And watch out, because the first matches of the new Champions League show that nothing is really predictable. I know well Atletico Madrid, which has collected only three points so far (like Bayern), or on the contrary, Brest (seven points in three games) or Celtic. In the end, there will be some surprises that will make it to the next round and, as a direct consequence, some important heads will come out of Europe. And who knows if the algorithm, so accurate in numbers, had predicted this too...

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