
US President Donald Trump has acknowledged that the war in Iran has not received the expected support and that his administration is considering other alternatives, although the possibility of a new military intervention remains open. While clashes between the parties continue, with limited attacks and Iranian strikes on oil tankers, Washington is also considering the diplomatic path. In this context, meetings with mediators from Qatar are expected to be held at the White House.
In parallel with the diplomatic efforts, the Pentagon and US intelligence services are preparing other measures to increase pressure on Tehran. US Central Command has announced a plan to establish a land blockade of Iran, known as “Iron Gate”. The project is being led by about 20 officers in Tampa, Florida, and aims to monitor and disrupt the supply of Iran with weapons and other materials through land borders and the Caspian Sea.
However, the implementation of this plan presents great difficulties. To function, it requires the full cooperation of Iran's neighboring countries, which have an interest in maintaining relations and communication with Tehran. Some of the areas where the authorities would have to operate are without a US presence, others face armed conflicts, such as the Baluchistan region, or are controlled by US opponents, such as the Taliban.
Another obstacle is the Caspian Sea, which is reportedly used by Russia to ship military equipment and materials, including drones and missile parts, to Iran. These movements have been previously reported by American and Ukrainian media. To cut off this supply, Washington would have to confront Moscow directly, a step that could be difficult given the relationship between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Another initiative of the US administration is offering a reward of $20 million for anyone who provides information on Iran's nuclear program. In the meantime, several options for continuing military operations remain on Trump's table. One of them is the resumption of a broad offensive, with bombings of military bases and nuclear targets, including the facility on Pickaxe Mountain. Another alternative is a more limited intervention, focused on Iranian infrastructure.
However, a new attack would be costly. The cost of the war is estimated at $47 billion so far, and the US Congress has not approved any new funding. Also, according to analysts, there is no guarantee that a new offensive would achieve the intended results. For this reason, one of the alternatives being considered is to increase economic pressure on Iran, where the “Iron Gate” land blockade would play an important role. However, US intelligence estimates suggest that Tehran has built up significant reserves, which could help it cope with the restrictions.
At the same time, diplomacy remains an option, despite strong positions on both sides. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described Iran's conditions for reaching an agreement as ridiculous and unacceptable. Tehran, on the other hand, has not given up on demanding a solution that it considers fair and dignified.
Iranian authorities also seek to establish a new order in the Persian Gulf and aim to maintain their role in the Strait of Hormuz. They have warned that a new war could have serious consequences and that Iran's response would extend beyond the region. In this context, French authorities have launched an investigation into a group linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, "Shahid Kaveh", suspected of cyberattacks on supermarkets.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has also signaled the need to move beyond the current ambiguous situation, between war and peace. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly for a long time, has called for this situation to end.
According to analysts, Tehran is concerned that Washington could pursue a prolonged pressure strategy, alternating limited attacks with attempts at negotiations. Such a scenario would keep Iran in a constant state of uncertainty. As The New York Times notes, getting out of this situation could take time and patience, an approach that, according to the newspaper's analysis, does not match the way Trump has acted so far.