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Trump welcomes the Mecca pact, but can this alliance replace America's role in the Middle East?

2026-08-19 19:53:39Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Erdogan, Trump and Mohammed bin Salman

Al Jazeera / The mutual defense agreement signed in Mecca by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan 10 days ago has been seen by some analysts as a signal to Washington: some of the US's closest military allies are looking for new ways to guarantee their security, without relying solely on American support.

US President Donald Trump, however, has welcomed the agreement.

In a post on social media, he said he was "very pleased" that the three countries had signed the agreement and that it showed that Middle Eastern countries were coming together to be able to better defend themselves.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump a few hours later, attributing to his leadership what he described as the averting of a "nuclear catastrophe in South Asia."

However, behind the agreement lies an important question: Can such an alliance replace the role of the United States, where Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have relied for decades?

The US demands more responsibility from allies

Trump's stance is not disconnected from his overall policy toward allies. The US president has repeatedly called on partner countries to increase their defense spending and responsibilities and not rely disproportionately on US resources.

At the NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, member countries agreed to significantly increase their defense spending target, from 2% to 5% of Gross Domestic Product by 2035, after continued pressure from Trump.

Meanwhile, the US president has also announced a significant reduction in joint military exercises with South Korea, citing costs and his relationship with North Korea.

In this context, some experts see the Mecca agreement as part of a broader shift, where countries in the region are trying to create greater capacities for their own defense.

According to Betul Dogan-Akkas, a professor of international relations at Ankara University, the Gulf countries have lost some of their deterrence capability and are trying to regain it without relying entirely on the US.

She sees Turkey's role as an attempt by Ankara to show that it can play a greater role as a security guarantor in the region.

The United States is not leaving completely

Not all analysts believe that Washington is withdrawing from the Middle East.

Umer Karim, a scholar of Gulf and Pakistan affairs, argues that the American presence will continue, but countries in the region are trying to diversify their security partnerships.

According to him, local countries can take on a greater share of the defense burden and fill the gaps created by their previous almost total dependence on the US.

Analyst Mansoor Ahmed also sees American policy as a gradual withdrawal from some responsibilities, as Washington seeks to strengthen its military and industrial base and ask allies to take on more responsibility for defense.

However, according to him, the Mecca agreement was not created as a direct consequence of the change in US policy. It was planned earlier and is mainly related to the concerns of the Gulf countries about the US's readiness and capacity to protect them.

Turkey seeks a bigger role

For Turkey, the agreement is not just about national security. It is also related to Ankara's ambition to position itself as a security provider in the region, and not simply as a country seeking protection from others.

According to experts, Turkey has long had doubts about the level of guarantees offered by the US, especially in a situation where American allies in the region have faced direct threats.

For this reason, the agreement is seen as a way to create an additional security alternative, without necessarily being a move against the US.

What does the agreement provide?

The Mecca Agreement stipulates that an armed attack on one member state will be considered an attack on all three. The wording is similar to NATO's Article 5, which stipulates the principle of collective defense.

However, the agreement does not mean that Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan will automatically go to war whenever one of them is attacked.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has explained that the country under attack must first request assistance and determine what kind of support it needs, whether in the form of intelligence, logistics or military troops.

This means that each state retains the right to determine whether, when, and to what extent it will provide military assistance.

A new alliance, but not a replacement for the US

Analysts are cautious about the agreement's ability to replace US support. The agreement may give the three countries more defensive options and increase their deterrence, but it does not immediately create capabilities on par with those of the US.

The Gulf states continue to be significantly dependent on American capabilities. There are about 50,000 American troops in the region, a capacity that cannot currently be replaced by the new agreement.

However, the Mecca agreement could serve as an additional layer of security for member states. It gives them more options and options to respond to threats, while at the same time allowing them to maintain existing relations with the United States.

In this sense, the agreement does not necessarily represent the end of the American role in the Middle East, but it could be a sign of an important change: US allies are trying to take more responsibility for their security and not depend solely on a single power.


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