DREAM / The Prime Minister resigns and wakes up under the Parisian bridge!

 Kliko këtu për të tjera
Voxpress:

Cuba in the spotlight, the US moves the Nimitz aircraft carrier to the Caribbean. Is a "Caracas model" being prepared for Havana as well?

2026-05-22 23:48:55Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Cuba in the spotlight, the US moves the Nimitz aircraft carrier to the
Cuba targeted by the US

With the accusations against Raúl Castro, it seems that the Venezuelan scenario is being repeated in Cuba. This would also be shown by the arrival in the southern Caribbean Sea of ​​the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Nimitz and its strike group, although a government source told the New York Times that it is a "show of force and not a major military operation," as happened with the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford during the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro.

In any case, for Donald Trump, the capture and imprisonment of the Venezuelan president represents the "perfect scenario" that his administration aims to imitate to reorganize governments "hostile" to the US around the world.

After the success of the operation against the dictator of Caracas, without American casualties and with a new regime (slightly democratic but obedient to Washington) the tycoon tried unsuccessfully the same thing with the government of the ayatollahs in Tehran. Now a “Venezuelan-style” transition is also foreseen for Cuba. But is this scenario feasible on the island of the Revolution?

The “Caracas Model” is simple: the supreme leader is eliminated, most of the mid-level officials are kept in power to guarantee administrative stability, and economic and trade agreements are immediately concluded with the new leaders. Democracy, in short, is relegated to the background.

In Venezuela, interim President Delcy Rodríguez has been working since day one, after Maduro was arrested on January 3 and transferred to New York for trial, in full harmony with the White House. Twenty-six years of “chavismo” seem to have been wiped out overnight in the name of the new oil business. Only in appearance, because the military leaders, the main pillar of the dictatorship, continue to hold firm control and there is still no talk of democratic elections.

But Havana is not Caracas, warn those who know the Castro regime well. It is unlikely that a “Castroism with the stamp of Uncle Sam” will be installed. Beyond the apparent compactness of the communist government around the figure of Raúl Castro, who is over 90 years old, the main obstacle lies in the United States, not in Cuba.

"In my conversations with people in the administration, I see no room for the current leaders, neither for the president, nor for the Castro family. I am convinced that Trump's ultimate objective is a change of government in Cuba, in the very short term," Hugo Cancio, a Cuban-American businessman from Miami, founder of the e-commerce platform Katapulk, told the Italian media outlet Corriere della Sera.

Unlike Venezuela, Cuban immigrants have created a powerful political network, integrated into Washington institutions: 11 members of the US Congress are of Cuban origin and exert constant pressure for the overthrow of the Havana regime. Miami's Cuban community would never accept a hybrid solution.

Secretary of State and presidential aspirant Marco Rubio, of Cuban origin, in charge of the (not-so-secret) negotiations with Raúl Castro's increasingly powerful nephew, Raúl Rodríguez Castro, knows well that the "Venezuelan model" would not be accepted by his community, which constitutes a significant part of the electorate.

This is also confirmed by the latest Pew Research Center survey: only 66% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 still approve of his actions, a drop of 27 points from the beginning of his second term.

If the “Venezuelan solution” fails, the option of invasion remains. But this is an unpredictable scenario, with many unknowns: how would Cuban soldiers trained for absolute loyalty behave? How would the Cuban people, tired of the lack of democracy, composed mainly of women, the elderly and children, react, as young men have fled the island en masse?

The Cuban revolution has been in power since 1959. Unlike Venezuela, where “chavism” (the political and ideological movement created by Hugo Chávez) began in 1998, there is no real opposition in Cuba, apart from a few dissident groups supported by the Catholic Church.

“Venezuelans want a return to the glory days of the 20th century oil boom; Cubans want a new beginning,” writes Politico. But even young people know, as revolutionary schools have always taught, that Cuba has long been “occupied” by the United States and that before the revolution, “American interests obtained half of the sugar at low prices, owned a third of the sugar factories, a third of the public utilities, 90% of the electricity production and almost a quarter of the island’s territory.”

Trump is seeking a political victory to assuage the electorate's anger "over the long war in Iran and rising gas prices," the New York Times writes.

CIA chief John Ratcliffe, during his historic visit to Havana, delivered an ultimatum to Cuban Interior Minister Lázaro Casas and Raúl Rodríguez Castro.

"It would be unpleasant if something bad were to happen to this beautiful island," he said in mafia style, on the very day Havana admitted that its last fuel reserves were running out. When the threats end, any decision will not be easy and will have unpredictable consequences./ Corriere della Sera


Në përputhje me standarded JTI

Video

SHIKO KANALIN NE YOUTUBE
×