Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is facing a new challenge on the right wing of politics, as the approaching elections and the rise of former general Roberto Vannacci appear to be pushing her towards tougher rhetoric, particularly on immigration and security.
According to an analysis by Politico , the strengthening of Vannacci's new party, "National Future", is changing the balance within the Italian right. Meloni, who during her years in power has built a more institutional and moderate profile in the international arena, is bringing back to the forefront some of the themes that led her to victory in 2022.
One indicator of this change is the recent clash between Rome and Madrid over immigration, following the influx of migrants from Morocco to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta.
Italy reacted sharply to Spain's handling of the situation and imposed special controls on travelers arriving from Spanish territory. The measures are expected to remain in place until at least August 15, while Madrid has warned of similar measures for travelers from Italy.
"We will not give up even a millimeter on the issue of illegal immigration," Meloni declared in X, emphasizing that border protection, the fight against human traffickers, and repatriations will continue to be priorities of her government.
But behind Rome's strong stance, Politico also sees an internal electoral calculation.
Roberto Vannacci is gaining ground with a platform focused on security, immigration and national identity. According to polls cited in the analysis, "National Future" has passed the 7% mark and is now competing with the traditional right-wing coalition parties.
Political scientist Marco Tarchi argues that competition from the right may explain Meloni's change in tone. The themes, he says, have not changed much, but the rhetoric has become stronger.
Vannacci is trying to position himself even further to the right than the prime minister. The former general has placed immigration at the center of his platform and promotes the concept of "re-migration," which aims to encourage migrants to return to their countries of origin.
According to Lorenzo Preliasco, from the polling company YouTrend, support above 7% for Vannacci could prove decisive for the future of the Italian right.
"Without Vannacci, the center-right could lose the next elections," is his assessment.

However, those close to Meloni reject the idea that the prime minister is changing course solely because of her new rival. Nicola Procaccini, a Meloni ally and co-chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists group in the European Parliament, argues that she continues to hold the same political positions.
Ukraine separates Meloni from Vannacci
The point where the differences between the two figures become much deeper is policy towards Ukraine.
Meloni has taken a clear stance in support of Kiev and positioned Italy on the side of Western allies. Vannacci, like part of the League, opposes military aid to Ukraine and calls for a softer approach towards Moscow.
This very issue may also determine whether the two camps will be able to cooperate after the elections.
Procaccini does not rule out a future agreement with Vannacci, but sets as a condition his international orientation. According to him, cooperation could be possible if the former general chooses to remain in the Western camp and of liberal democracies.
On the eve of the upcoming electoral battle, Meloni thus finds herself faced with a delicate balance: to maintain the institutional profile she has built as prime minister, but at the same time not to lose the most right-wing voters in favor of Vannacci.
The rise of the former general could turn the race for the leadership of the Italian right into one of the main battles of the upcoming elections.