Harris or Trump: How will the election of Americans in Kosovo affect

The election of Americans on November 5 will be felt around the globe — as far as Kosovo — and will influence policies one way or another.

In the running for the first White House are Kamala Harris, from the Democratic Party, currently vice president, and Donald Trump, from the Republican Party and president from 2017 to 2021.

Kosovo, over the years, has been constantly in the attention of the US, despite its political leadership.

Under Democratic President Bill Clinton in 1999, the U.S. and other NATO allies bombed the targets of the then Yugoslav army to stop the violence in Kosovo.

Nearly ten years later, under Republican President George W. Bush, Kosovo has declared independence.

The current administration, which harris is part of, has repeatedly encouraged Kosovo to normalize relations with Serbia as a condition of moving forward on the path of European integration, while Trump as president witnessed the signing of an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia on the normalization of economic relations.

For Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, the result of the November 5th elections looks likely to have little consequence for continued cooperation and partnership. He remains convinced that his commitment to engaging with leaders of different political backgrounds will continue.

"I am the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kosovo and I work with the leaders of countries that are from all sides of the political spectrum – this as prime minister. As the head of the Vetevendosje Movement, of course I am a Social Democrat, I am a Democrat and I have nothing new to add," Kurti told a press conference in Pristina.

For analysts in the US, the situation will not be so simple. First, with the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and territorial dispute in the South China Sea, Kosovo will not be going to go high on the agenda, according to them.

Then there are two completely different candidates in the race – Harris with some experience in the Western Balkans and Trump known for transactional, or 'sell and buy' approaches.

Frank Wisner, a former U.S. envoy for Kosovo status, tells RFE/RL's Expose program that Kosovo's biggest problem is the dispute with Serbia, which continues to not recognize its independence, even nearly 17 years after the declaration.

Wisner doesn't expect any move in that direction, if Harris is elected president.

"I assume that harris administration would pursue less ambitious goals. It would try to put Kosovo and Serbia on a table, along with Europeans, but would aim for smaller advances – in economy, trade, culture, movement of people... So, in things that start to lower the temperature between the two countries," Wisner says.

David Phillips, director of the Peacebuilding and Human Rights Program at Columbia University, shares similar views of Harris.

He does not expect any meaningful action from it regarding relations between Kosovo and Serbia.

"She is a supporter of the rule of law and human rights. We are likely to notice this not only in Kosovo, but everywhere in the world. "We can expect her to become a champion of the rule of law and the fight against kleptocracy," Phillips said.

For Trump, the expectations are significantly more concerning. Both experts fear that his "transactional" approach could lead to unpredictable and potentially dangerous consequences for Kosovo's future.

Wisner does not rule out the possibility that Trump will explore the partition of Kosovo as a quick solution to its ongoing conflict with Serbia.

"If he sees an agreement with [Serbian President Aleksandar] Vucic that fits, he will not expect Kosovo to comply. He'll be transactional, in search of a deal, in search of a breakthrough, in search of something that makes him look good. Kosovo needs to be able to make sure it has strong european support, but its journey can be difficult," Wisner said.

Wisner recalls that a land swap deal between Kosovo and Serbia along ethnic lines was talked about in 2020, during Trump's first presidential term.

But the plan did not go ahead after Kosovo's then-president, Hashim Thaci, was handed over to the Special Court in The Hague as a war crimes suspect.

Phillips also says that Trump sees the partition of Kosovo as a quick solution to its troubled ethnic relations, and that would not only destabilize Kosovo, but open Pandora's Box to other multiethnic Balkan states, such as North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Serbia.

"If Trump is elected, we're likely to see a major change in the approach of the United States. Trump has financial interests in the Balkans. He has proven interests in transactions in favor of the U.S.," Phillips told Expose.

In September, Trump's eldest son, Donald Jr., had dinner with Serbian businessmen in Belgrade to discuss investment opportunities.

Earlier in May, Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, made a contract with the state of Serbia to build a luxury hotel on the site of a former military base in Belgrade.

Richard Grenell, who at the time of the Trump administration was the U.S. representative in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue and pushed forward the land swap agreement, has also developed close relations with the Serbian government.

In 2023, Vucic shared the Order of the Serbian Flag with him, saying Grenell "was among the few people in the U.S. who had a balanced approach to Kosovo."

Donald Trump Jr. has called Grenell a "leading contender for the secretary of state" if his father took over the White House.

For Wisner, that wouldn't be good news.

"I don't want to sound too harsh, but I think he has done great damage to American foreign policy in the region by coming up with ideas that have not been achievable," he says.

During the presidency, Trump and his administration have on several occasions warned of the possibility of withdrawing U.S. troops from Kosovo. Their presence within NATO's peacekeeping mission, KFOR, is seen as a guarantee for Kosovo's security.

Phillips warns of significant consequences in this respect, if Trump is re-elected.

"One of the first things That Trump will do is to assess American policy and security interests. I would expect [the US military base in Kosovo] Bondsteel to be gradually eliminated. "Any steps to get Kosovo into NATO would be suspended," Phillips said.

Wisner argues that U.S. forces fulfill a dual role in Kosovo, acting not only as a protector but also as a symbol of U.S. commitment.

"It's not good to think that issues of this nature last forever. But given the unresolved state of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, I hope that U.S. troops will continue to be part of the security regime in which Kosovo lives," Wisner said.

The opinions of some citizens surveyed by Radio Free Europe in Pristina closely match those of analysts. Most believe harris' presidency, unlike Trump's, would preserve the spirit of stability.

"I think Harris would be better. For The New Yorker, I think it would be better. It would help us, because we need help. As Clinton helped us... "Trump is more aggressive, I guess he would not help Kosovo," says Nasser Leci.

Vjosa Thaci believes that "the elections will be won by Trump."

“… Harris is the most popular candidate for us. This is because it belongs to the traditional party that we Kosovar Albanians always support" according to her.

"Harris has shown her best for the people, for the American economy, for the multi-nationality that America has. Harris has shown no rejection of other communities, such as Trump being against foreigners and calling for sanctions against them. Even to the world, [Harris] seems to me to have a more liberal attitude," Bujar Tresi says.

With a candidate who has not had Kosovo in her career portfolio and an unpredictable candidate in decisions, it remains unclear whether Kosovo will continue to have a constructive U.S. ally or face new obstacles.

The race between them is extremely tight.

In the words of Ambassador Frank Wisner, Kosovo should be patient – to focus on building economic capacities and improving governance, without having any illusions that it will soon be recognized by Serbia and open the way for EU or UN integration. /REL