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Will Germany fulfill its grand military ambitions?

2024-02-16 17:52:28Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Will Germany fulfill its grand military ambitions?
Will Germany fulfill its grand military ambitions?

From the Financial Times

The Holzdorf military base was once the pride of communist East Germany, a strategic pillar for the Warsaw Pact countries that opposed NATO.

It is now being rebuilt as one of the West's greatest bulwarks against Russia. The base's runway is being expanded, so every aircraft in NATO's arsenal can land there.

It will soon take possession of 60 new heavy Chinook helicopters and the Arrow air defense system from Israel, capable of shooting down intercontinental ballistic missiles. But the arrival of the Chinooks will be the "crowning glory" of the transformation. They will replace German Sikorsky CH-53 helicopters that have been in use since 1972 and are so old that the military has struggled to find replacement parts when they break down. The Chinooks and Arrow are being paid for by a new 100 billion euro debt-financed fund for the Bundeswehr, the German armed forces.

The investment fund underlines Germany's aim to become Europe's biggest military spender and provide its largest conventional army.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz revealed the cash injection just three days after Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in a speech to the Bundestag that described the war as a defining moment in Germany's modern history.

The commitment allowed Scholz to fulfill one of his key promises: that Germany would devote 2 percent of its gross domestic product to defense.

Germany will spend nearly 72 billion euros on defense this year, more than it has ever spent in the history of the Bundeswehr. About 52 billion euros will come from the regular budget and 19.8 billion euros from the investment fund.

But concern is growing about what will happen after 2027, when the fund runs dry. Experts believe that the country will need to raise an additional 25-30 billion euros per year from the general budget to meet the 2 percent target.

This is an impressive sum that may require major cuts in welfare spending if the country wants to balance the books.

There is one person in government who has openly addressed the problem – Boris Pistorius, the popular Defense Minister. He has argued that the lack of a long-term perspective makes it almost impossible for the Bundeswehr – and the arms manufacturers that supply it – to plan for the future. Speaking in the Bundestag at the end of January, he said defense required "a reliable, stable budget and a growing military budget". "The €100 billion fund was an important first step," he told MPs. "But we have to start thinking today about how we want to adequately equip the Bundeswehr even after the fund is fully spent."

Appeals for more money have been backed by an escalation in rhetoric that Pistorius himself admits is designed to "wake up the Germans". He said last month that Russian President Vladimir Putin could attack a NATO member state "within five to eight years." "We have a level of threat in Europe that we haven't seen in 30 years," he said.

Such fears are now being compounded by the specter of a second Donald Trump presidency and a new era of American isolationism.

Last Saturday, Trump declared that his administration would "encourage" Russia to attack any NATO member that did not spend enough on defense - a comment widely condemned in Germany.

Scholz said that any attack on the principle of collective defense of NATO was "irresponsible and dangerous and only in the interests of Russia".

In recent years, Europe has pledged to take on a greater share of the collective defense burden. But this commitment is based on keeping German military spending at its current record levels, and that may be a pious hope. MPs from all three parties in Scholz's coalition government dismiss growing fears over long-term funding for the military. They quote Finance Minister Christian Lindner assuring the Bundestag's defense committee in late January that the 2 percent target was certain. But privately, no one in power seems to know how the target can be achieved – especially given the tight constraints on the German budget.

Germany is one of the few countries that has a brake on new borrowing enshrined in its constitution, the so-called debt brake.

With such a squeeze, closing the Bundeswehr's funding gap could prove difficult.

Scholz's Zeitenwende speech recognized a truth that had long been apparent to German generals – that the country's military capabilities were dangerously depleted.

At the end of the Cold War, the Bundeswehr had a strength of half a million troops, making it one of Europe's most formidable fighting forces. But between 1990 and 2019, power fell by 60 percent. The army became a kind of orphan child, starved for funds. The military equipment was either disposed of, sold, or scrapped.

Një studim i Institutit Ekonomik Gjerman (IW) zbuloi se ushtria ishte financuar më pak në krahasim me standardet e NATO-s me të paktën 394 miliardë euro midis vitit 1990 dhe fillimit të viteve 2020. Scholz e quajti kohën në këtë epokë të maturisë.

Në fund të vitit 2022, ai u mburr se Gjermania së shpejti do të kishte “ushtrinë më të madhe konvencionale” nga të gjitha vendet anëtare evropiane në NATO. Pistorius ka shkuar edhe më tej, duke thënë në një intervistë nëntorin e kaluar se Gjermania duhet të bëhet “e gatshme për të bërë luftë dhe e aftë për ta bërë këtë”.

Ndryshimi në retorikë ka qenë i habitshëm për disa. Por të tjerë janë ende të zhgënjyer. Një pjesë e problemit është se pavarësisht nga të gjitha paratë e reja, Bundeswehr-i është në shumë mënyra edhe më pak i pajisur se sa ishte përpara pushtimit rus të Ukrainës. Gjermania i ka dhënë Kievit shumë nga kompletet e saj më të mira. Dhe ende nuk është e qartë se si dhe kur do të plotësohen sërish boshllëqet.

Ndërkohë, planet për të shkëmbyer pesë sistemet e artilerisë me raketa Mars II të furnizuara në Ukrainë me pesë raketahedhës të shumëfishtë Puls të prodhimit izraelit po lëvizin me ritmin e kërmillit, me Bundestagun ende për të miratuar blerjen. Mund të duhen gjithashtu vite përpara se Bundeswehr të marrë zëvendësime për 18 tanket e betejës Leopard 2 A6 që i dha Kievit. Një problem potencialisht më i madh, megjithatë, është çështja e financimit afatgjatë.

Mungesa e qartësisë për financimin është një pengesë e madhe për prodhuesit e armëve, të cilët hezitojnë të investojnë në kapacitete të reja prodhuese pa një garanci për porositë e ardhshme.

Problem mbetet edhe prokurimi ushtarak. Qeveria e Scholz-it ka nxitur masa të reja për të përshpejtuar dhe thjeshtuar procedurat, duke kufizuar të drejtën e humbësve të ofertuesve për të kundërshtuar ligjërisht rezultatet e tenderëve. Pistorius krenohet se 55 porosi për pajisje ushtarake me çmim prej 25 milionë euro e lart – një numër rekord – iu paraqitën komitetit të mbrojtjes së Bundestagut vitin e kaluar. Këtë vit, parashikon ai, do të jetë edhe më shumë.

Por kritikët thonë se sistemi është ende shumë i ngadaltë. Ndërkohë, Pistorius është ende duke u përballur me rezistencë në sistem.

Po ashtu ekziston një pikëpyetje mbi një nga planet më ambicioze të Gjermanisë – vendosjen e një brigade prej 5 mijë vetash në Lituani që do të jetë dislokimi i parë i huaj i përhershëm i vendit që nga Lufta e Dytë Botërore. Ekspertët thonë se është ende e paqartë se si do të formohet.

Rekrutët e mundshëm nuk kanë ende kuptim se ku do të strehohen familjet e tyre, ku do të shkojnë fëmijët e tyre në shkollë apo ku mund të punojnë partnerët e tyre. Kjo shkon në zemër të një prej sfidave më të mëdha të Pistorius.

Germany's Defense Ministry plans to expand the military from 183,000 active servicemen and women to 203,000 by 2031. But that will be a mammoth task, especially given Germany's aging population and deepening shortage of skilled workers.

Even now, 20,000 vacancies must be filled each year as professional soldiers and volunteer conscripts leave the service or officers retire. Statistics show that the number of applicants for jobs in the Armed Forces is decreasing. However, calls to the Bundeswehr are only expected to increase.

Last year, Germany provided NATO with 30,000 troops and 85 aircraft and naval vessels within 30 days of any major conflict, under the alliance's New Force Model. But finding enough people to make that commitment seems likely to be difficult.

Meanwhile, Russia has shown throughout the Ukraine war that it can draw upon vast – though not infinite – resources of human resource power. Holzdorf provides a striking visual metaphor for the understaffing and scale of the task facing the German military. At one end of the 2.5 km airstrip, a lone construction worker, wearing bright orange overalls that distinguish him against the dark gray Brandenburg sky, toils with a shovel, moving hard soil into a pile.

Holzdorf's commander, Lt. Col. Sascha Bleibohm, has no illusions about the challenges the federal government faces in reshaping Germany's armed forces.

But he is confident that Berlin will stay the course.

 


Në përputhje me standarded JTI

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