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Are heatstrokes becoming more common?

2026-05-29 23:39:49Aktualitet SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Are heatstrokes becoming more common?
Are heatstrokes becoming more common?

With temperatures this week reaching a record high of 35.1 degrees Celsius, the current heatwave is considered an unusual phenomenon for the month of May, according to the BBC.

In the wake of the heat wave, temperatures rose rapidly – ​​up to 10 degrees Celsius in just two days, in some areas.

Historically, temperatures have usually increased gradually, by 1-2 degrees Celsius per day.

The sudden transition from average temperatures to very high or extreme levels – known as "heatstroke" – is a phenomenon that meteorologists are noticing more and more often.

Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading (a prestigious research institution in Berkshire, England), told the BBC that heatwaves are occurring earlier, intensifying more quickly and occurring in an already much warmer climate.

However, according to Dr. Segolene Berthou from the Met Office, it is still not certain that extreme temperatures are increasing faster than in the past.

According to her, experts are analyzing several factors that could explain this phenomenon.

Higher temperatures create a “head start”

The Met Office's "State of the Climate 2024" report showed that in some parts of the UK, the hottest days are warming almost twice as fast as normal days.

Compared to the period 1961–1990, the number of days with temperatures 5 degrees Celsius above average has doubled, while days with temperatures 10 degrees Celsius above average have quadrupled.

“Extreme temperatures are increasing faster than average temperatures,” said Dr. Berthou.

Maximum summer temperatures are already about 1.5 degrees Celsius higher compared to the 1961–1990 climate period.

Following the record of 40.3 degrees Celsius recorded in July 2022, Met Office studies showed that the probability of crossing the 40 degree Celsius threshold is now more than 20 times higher than in the 1960s.

This "head start" makes it easier for current weather patterns to reach the thresholds of heat waves and extreme temperatures.

Drier land and air accelerate warming

The speed at which temperatures rise depends not only on the initial air temperature, but also on the level of dryness of the soil and atmosphere.

Dry land warms faster than wet land, as less energy is used for evaporation and more for direct temperature increase.

There is strong evidence that summer soils in the UK are becoming drier due to climate change, with Met Office forecasts pointing to earlier seasonal drying and more frequent periods of drought, particularly in the south and east of England.

The same mechanism operates in the upper atmosphere. Large areas of high pressure – known as “heat domes” – create descending air, which dries and warms further due to compression.

According to studies, although these high-pressure systems are not necessarily occurring more frequently, their effects on heat and drought have become more intense.

Change in wind circulation

The hottest periods in the UK are usually associated with winds from the south or southeast, which bring hot air from Southern Europe and North Africa.

Europe is warming at a rate about twice the global average, especially the southern regions – where the highest extreme temperatures are recorded.

Rapid changes in wind direction may explain why temperatures go from normal levels to heatwave conditions within a few days.

Heat waves in the seas

Sea surface temperatures around the UK are also considered an influencing factor.

According to Dr. Berthou, marine heat waves are becoming more frequent and more sustained, directly affecting temperatures on land.

In June 2023, the temperature in London rose from 23 degrees to 31 degrees Celsius in two days, while sea surface temperatures were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above normal.

A study published in the scientific journal Nature concluded that this marine heat wave added about 1 degree Celsius to temperatures near the land surface during June, reaching up to 1.5 degrees Celsius in early July.

June 2023 thus became the hottest June ever recorded in Great Britain.

With seas warming by about 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade and potentially up to 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer by 2050, their impact is expected to increase further.

Are "heat strokes" dangerous?

Heat waves cause human casualties. During the summer of 2025 alone, around 24,000 people lost their lives in Europe as a result of extreme temperatures.

The most at risk are the elderly, children, and people with health problems, especially when temperatures rise very quickly.

According to experts, the body needs time to adapt to the heat.

The sudden transition from 20 degrees Celsius to over 30 degrees Celsius within a few days creates great physical stress and increases the risk of heat stroke or dehydration.

Studies also show that the risk of heat-related deaths is highest during the first few days of exposure to extreme temperatures, before the body has time to adapt.

Although many meteorologists believe that "heatstrokes" are becoming more frequent, experts emphasize that further scientific analysis is needed to accurately determine whether current factors are truly leading to faster peak temperatures during heat waves.


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