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Messi, Mbappe or Kane/ Who will win the World Cup? Opta Supercomputer Prediction Says…

2026-07-09 09:14:35Sport SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Messi, Mbappe or Kane/ Who will win the World Cup? Opta Supercomputer Prediction

It's a mechanism that we've already learned to recognize, but it's worth remembering; the Opta Predictor is a prediction model created by Opta to assess the development of a given competition.

The mathematical model used takes into account numerous variables, including: the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing teams to face, historical results, precedents, performance index and many more.

At this point, Opta Predictor simulates the development of matches throughout the tournament thousands of times, determining the percentage chances of a team's positioning in the group classification and then defeating potential opponents in the knockout stages.

It doesn't end there; the algorithm is updated match by match based on the results and performances of all teams, and that's why predictions may change during the tournament.

The eight quarterfinalist teams: 

Argentina, Belgium, France, England, Morocco, Norway, Spain, Switzerland

Match-by-match percentages: 

Argentina passes with 69.1% vs 30.9%

What would the semi-finals be like (and who advances to the finals)?

Looking at the calculations and percentages, the two semi-finals are predicted to be France-Spain and England-Argentina. The supercomputer dictated this line even before the start of the World Cup. But compared to the predictions made before the tournament, the percentages for the possible grand final have changed. At first, the favorites were Spain and England, who raised few doubts during their journey in the groups. 

The algorithm says that France has   a 44.3% probability of reaching the final, against 36.4% for Spain and Argentina, while England is the furthest behind with 35%. In short, according to the Opta Supercomputer, the 2026 final will be the same as in the edition 4 years ago; France-Argentina, but the differences between Tuchel's team and Scaloni's are slowly reducing, seeing the last two victories with suffering for Argentina.

Who will win the World Cup according to the Opta Supercomputer?

The 2026 World Cup will not have the same result as 2022, at least according to the algorithm; the favorite for the final victory remains France with a 27.3% probability, the highest of all national teams.

Spain has a percentage of 21.3%, higher than Argentina's 17.3%.

Additional curiosity: Opta has compiled a unique ranking based on the probability of triumph in the World Cup without taking into account the tennis schedule.

The ranking reflects almost the entire performance of the tournament, but not always.

'Unique ranking' based on probability of winning the World Cup

France: 27.3%

Spain: 21.3%

Argentina: 17.3%

England: 16.5%

Norway: 6.6%

Switzerland: 3.8%

Morocco: 3.7%

Belgium: 3.6%.


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