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From reserved respect, envy for the spectacular operation to concern, how Russia views Maduro's fall

2026-01-05 23:40:50Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
From reserved respect, envy for the spectacular operation to concern, how Russia
Putin and Maduro

A surprise raid on the capital in the middle of the night ends with the capture of the country's leader. The next day, the occupying power announces that it will rule the nation for an indefinite period.

This is how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Instead, it was Donald Trump who carried it out in Venezuela, in an operation condemned by many as illegal, removing the Kremlin's historic ally, Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

In public, Russian officials have reacted angrily, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent.

But beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of involuntary respect – and even envy – for the effectiveness of the coup that Moscow itself once imagined but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence errors and strong Ukrainian resistance.

"The operation was carried out competently," wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora, which has close ties to the Russian military.

"Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to be: fast, dramatic and decisive. It's hard to believe that [Valery] Gerasimov planned to fight for four years," she added, referring to Russia's chief of general staff.

Such comments have fueled a state of self-analysis among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, a pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt "shame" on Russia's behalf at how bold the US intervention seemed.

"Within a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly ended his 'special military operation,'" she wrote.

Margarita Simonyan, Russia's top propagandist and head of RT, also gave her opinion on Telegram, saying Moscow had reason to "be jealous."

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to form a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Maduro regime in late December, few serious analysts expected Moscow to come to his aid in any meaningful way.

Blocked in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or become significantly weakened – from Bashar al-Assad in Syria to an increasingly weakened Iran – revealing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

"For Russia, the situation is deeply unpleasant," said Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert who advises the Kremlin.

Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow little choice but to express anger at the US actions.

However, providing any real assistance to such a distant country, operating in a fundamentally different geopolitical reality, is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.

There is also a more practical calculation.

Putin’s priority, analysts say, is Ukraine — and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front is far more important than the fate of Caracas. Despite Moscow’s promises to protect Maduro, the Kremlin had little appetite to risk Trump’s wrath for a distant theater.

"Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more important issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to overturn a much larger strategic game with a critical partner for what it sees as a secondary concern," Lukyanov said.

However, the loss of Venezuela to Russia carries some tangible costs for Moscow.

If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military and defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems supplied over the past decade.

These include S-300VM air defense systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also given Venezuela billions of dollars in loans, most of which is now unlikely to ever be recovered.

However, a more pressing concern for Moscow is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could lower global prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of revenue.

"If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela's oil fields, more than half of the world's oil reserves will end up under their control," Oleg Deripaska, a powerful Russian billionaire industrialist, wrote on Telegram.

"And it seems their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel."

However, some in Moscow see room for a kind of grim optimism.

Trump's ouster of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more stripped-down 19th-century-style world – a world in which power, rather than law, shapes outcomes and the globe is divided into rival spheres of influence, a model long supported by Russia.

"Team Trump is harsh and cynical in advancing his country's interests," Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's former president and one of its most aggressive voices, wrote approvingly.

"Maduro's removal had nothing to do with drugs - just oil, and they openly admit that. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice."/ The Guardian


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