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What will happen if Trump's threat to Iran becomes reality: Three scenarios

2026-04-07 23:46:35Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Tehran

The world is in a state of anxiety as the deadline for the ultimatum issued by United States President Donald Trump to Iran approaches. In the early hours of Wednesday, the deadline given to Tehran expires, while Trump has warned of "total destruction" if there is no progress in negotiations.

In his latest statements, Trump has threatened that the US could strike all of Iran's key infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. He said such an operation could be carried out "within four hours," adding that "the entire country could disappear overnight."

Three possible scenarios:

Military escalation

According to Axios reports, Trump is among the main voices pushing for the intensification of attacks. White House sources suggest that everything is ready for a major offensive in the Persian Gulf. Geopolitical analyst Klemens H. Fischer estimates that this is the most likely scenario, emphasizing that the space for a peaceful solution has narrowed significantly.

Progress in negotiations

Although tensions are high, some analysts believe a last-minute deal is not out of the question. Iran has managed to exert pressure by effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy trade. One possible Iranian plan involves reopening it in exchange for tariffs on ships, but it remains unclear whether this would be accepted by Washington.

Ultimatum without consequences

In the past, Trump has often used strong rhetoric without following up with concrete actions. According to Free University of Berlin and political scientist Christian Lammert, such statements often serve as negotiating pressure. However, many analysts believe that this time the situation is more serious and a withdrawal without action could damage the US's credibility.


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