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ANALYSIS: Trump wanted Canada as the 51st state. He ended up pushing it towards the European Union

2026-09-17 21:52:07Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
ANALYSIS: Trump wanted Canada as the 51st state. He ended up pushing it towards
President Donald J. Trump with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the Oval Office last October.

Luke Broadwater and Michael Crowley – New York Times

The EU's invitation to Canada to become an "associate member" is a sign of Trump's diplomacy, which often involves threatening America's closest friends.

At the start of his second term, President Trump wanted Canada to be so closely tied to the United States that he even aimed to make it the 51st state. Instead, he has pushed Canada toward the European Union, after months of antagonizing, mocking the country’s prime minister, and waging an unstoppable trade war.

The European Union's invitation on Wednesday for Canada to become an "associate member" is a sign of the effects of Trump's diplomacy, which often involves threatening countries once considered America's closest friends.

Even if the EU's gesture ends up being more symbolic than substantive, it shows how Trump is shaking up global relations in ways that will be difficult to undo.

“We should see this action by Canada and the EU as a direct consequence of Trump’s actions and rhetoric,” said James Batchik, deputy director at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. “The rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state and the threats to Greenland, which are still very, very controversial and remembered in Brussels, are really reminders to both sides that the United States is not necessarily the trusted ally it once was.”

At every turn, Trump's threatening approach to Canada has backfired. His trade war has caused problems for weakened Republicans in key swing states, jeopardizing the GOP's control of the Senate. And his hostility to Canadian leaders has helped propel the country's liberal party, which is no friend of Trump, to electoral victory.

President Trump reacted angrily to the EU's offer to Canada, speaking to reporters on Wednesday evening.

“Canada has been a very important trading partner,” he said. “No, I don’t see it that way. If they do this, if I consider it a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or I will stop trade with Europe on many things. So if they do this, if Europe does this with a bad intention, if it’s with a good intention, that’s fine, but if it’s with a bad intention, we will put very heavy tariffs on Europe, which is a possibility.”

Trump's battle with Canada is part of his particular focus on the Western Hemisphere, which recent presidents, typically focused on the Middle East and Asia, have often neglected.

Emboldened by a U.S. operation that toppled Venezuela’s leader, Trump has targeted other Western Hemisphere countries this year. He has put heavy economic pressure on Cuba and proposed a “friendly takeover.” He has threatened to seize control of the Panama Canal and tear Greenland away from Denmark.

In an update of the Monroe Doctrine, the foundational 1823 statement on U.S. claims in the Western Hemisphere, with what he called the “Trump Correction,” the president officially declared that “the American people, not foreign nations nor globalist institutions, will always control their destiny in our hemisphere.”

(Trump often refers to the concept as the “Donroe Doctrine,” named after himself.)

In the cases of Cuba and Venezuela, Trump's policies are being led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American with a strong anti-socialist ideology. Rubio has shown far less public enthusiasm for Trump's territorial claims than for democratizing the region.

But Trump's fixation with Canada is largely about trade and economics, not territory or politics.

The president began his second term by threatening Canada's previous leader, Justin Trudeau, whom Trump publicly mocked, with unilaterally tearing up agreements that have governed relations between the two neighboring countries for more than a century.

He has imposed tariffs on Canada, which along with Mexico is one of America's two main trading partners, which are hurting key sectors of the Canadian economy, such as automobiles, steel, aluminum and lumber.

Partly because of Trump’s attacks, Canadians rallied around Trudeau’s successor, Prime Minister Mark Carney, who positioned himself as an opponent of the American president. This year, Carney gave a speech in Davos, Switzerland, where he called for a new world order, no longer led by America, prompting the global political and corporate leaders in the room to rise to a rare standing ovation.

"Middle powers need to act together, because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu," Carney said.

Liana Fix, a senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, said it is unclear what it would mean for Canada to become an “associate member” of the EU, beyond the trade and defense agreements that already exist. But Canada and the European Union are set to meet at a summit in late October, where they are expected to present more concrete ideas.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Union, has said that Canada and Europe can work more closely together on the Arctic, their defense industrial bases and critical minerals.

"The EU wants to send a message that middle powers have a voice and will not be allowed to be bullied by the Trump administration," Fix said.

The reaction from Canada and European leaders is perhaps expected, given Trump's penchant for attacking allies and showing friendship with historical rivals, Batchik said.

“Donald Trump has been softer on some of our adversaries, primarily Russia and China, while he has doubled down and taken a cheerful approach to sniping at our former allies,” Batchik said. “You’re seeing more and more Europeans taking this seriously and saying, well, if this is really the situation, if this is the treatment the United States is giving its allies, then they’re just going to look elsewhere.”

This could end up being “a generational departure from the United States,” he said, “or at least it will require a significant amount of energy and time to repair these relationships.”


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