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ANALYSIS: Where are Iran's regional allies and why aren't they joining the war?

2025-06-18 11:21:57Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Israeli air defense systems shoot down missiles during an Iranian attack, near the border with Lebanon, June 18, 2025

Over the past few decades, Iran has built a network of allies in the region. In the current conflict with Israel, some of them have so far remained on the sidelines. Why is this happening?

In recent years, Iran has stood out above all for one thing: it has rarely been alone in conflicts. With abundant money, arms supplies and military training, Tehran has built a network of Shiite allies in the region in recent decades, who have not hesitated to intervene for the so-called Axis of Resistance against Israel.

Iran's regional influence stems from its so-called "proxies," as Lebanese political commentator Ronnie Chatah explained on Al Jazeera: first and foremost, the Shiite militia Hezbollah in Lebanon, but also the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, and Shiite militias in Iraq are on the side of the Tehran regime. Not to mention dictator Assad in Syria, whose power has recently been dependent on Iran, among others.

Iran's supporters weaken

However, for several months now, the ranks of Iran's supporters have been eroding, largely due to Israel, the "New Middle East" proclaimed by Benjamin Netanyahu, and the changing balance of power in the region: Hamas has been weakened by the Gaza war, although it has not been defeated. Important leaders such as Ismail Haniya and Yahya Sinwar have been killed. The Houthis in Yemen are under fire as a result of their attacks on Israel, and Sana'a's airport and other important infrastructure have been destroyed. Syrian dictator Assad has been overthrown by Islamists, and military installations have been bombed by Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon has also been hit hard in the war against Israel late last year, according to political scientist Mustafa Kamel as-Sayyed of Cairo University: "Hezbollah has been weakened enormously. Its leaders have been killed, the militia had to withdraw from the south, and it continues to be bombed by Israel to this day."

"Hezbollah in existential crisis"

Hezbollah is definitely in a different situation than before, Maha Yahya of the Carnegie Institution in Beirut also argues. "Hezbollah needs to redefine itself now. It is in an existential crisis."

Since Hamas’s terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, and the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah had been provoking a war with Israel to open a second front. After months of fighting, Israel counterattacked with force starting in September of last year, reducing Hezbollah’s infrastructure to rubble and killing almost its entire leadership, including its early leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Since then, Hezbollah has reorganized. In the current conflict, the militia remains silent. A profound silence, as observers describe it. Is Hezbollah no longer able or willing to fight?

Iran's options in Lebanon are limited, says Lebanese political commentator Chatah. "Hezbollah's ability to react is no longer the same as it was before the war." The same strong front no longer exists. "And this will push Iran towards diplomacy, because its options in the region are limited."

The Houthis show willingness to fight

However, Hezbollah remains ready to fight, notes Lebanese journalist Amin Qamouriyeh. He doubts that Lebanon's current caution is a strategy: "Hezbollah assumes that Iran remains strong enough to defend itself. We have not yet reached the point where the Iranian regime will collapse. In the meantime, Hezbollah remains cautious."

While Hezbollah hesitates, the Houthis in Yemen are clearly showing a willingness to fight. A Houthi spokesman declared: "The Yemeni armed forces salute the Islamic Republic of Iran for its courageous, determined and loyal resistance against the brutal Zionist aggression."

However, even in this case, the solidarity attacks with drones and missiles were of little importance. Iran currently does not seem to have any interest in activating its remaining allies in the region. In addition, they all have their own interests and are much more than just order takers, according to political scientist Mustafa Kamel as-Sayyed: "I suspect it is just about taking orders from Tehran. All of these groups have a certain autonomy and are under pressure in their countries of origin."

ANALYSIS: Where are Iran's regional allies and why aren't they joining
Iran's regional allies

Lebanon and Iraq want to remain uninvolved

According to some reports, Lebanon and Iraq have asked Iran to keep them out of the current escalation with Israel. If Iran escalates the conflict, attacks against US military bases in the Gulf States or in Iraq could occur. Iran has built large structures.

Iran is the most influential country in Iraq and exercises control over several Shiite militias. However, attacks on American soldiers would force US President Donald Trump to take military action, something Iran appears to want to avoid.

"So far, Iran has only used missiles and has not used other means of pressure," says journalist Amin Qamouriyeh. "The Strait of Hormuz has not been closed, oil supplies continue, and no American military base has been attacked. All of this could happen in a second phase, depending on how events unfold."

"Rockets don't solve problems"

Observers are cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a negotiated settlement between Israel and Iran in the coming days. US President Donald Trump himself has spoken of a possible deal. However, many experts agree that military force and displays of power by Israel will not bring lasting peace to the region. Or, as Lebanese commentator Chatah puts it: "Missiles do not solve problems."

/A.Ossius/ARD


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