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BBC Analysis: Trump's latest blow, why Putin is taking a deep breath to respond

2025-09-24 21:45:46Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
BBC Analysis: Trump's latest blow, why Putin is taking a deep breath to
Putin and Peskov

By Steve Rosenberg – BBC Moscow Editor

On paper, there was enough in Donald Trump's comments to infuriate the Kremlin.

For starters, his description of Russia as a “paper tiger” that is “fighting aimlessly” in Ukraine.

Moscow will not like this.

I remember when President Barack Obama described Russia as a “regional power,” instead of a global power: that was taken as a huge insult here (in Moscow).

President Trump's suggestion that Ukraine could regain all the territory that Russia had occupied will have raised eyebrows in Moscow as well.

And Russian eyebrows will have been raised even more after Trump's response to a journalist's question.

"Don't you think NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes if they enter their airspace?" the journalist asked.

"I think so," Trump replied.

However, the Kremlin's initial reaction to all of this has been quite restrained.

Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, gently brushed aside the "paper tiger" insult.

“Russia is by no means a tiger,” Mr. Peskov told a Russian radio station. “It is more related to a bear. And there is no such thing as a paper bear.”

What about the suggestion that Kiev could reclaim lost territory?

“The claim that Ukraine can regain something by fighting is wrong,” the spokesman told reporters later.

In a call with reporters from the Kremlin, I asked Dmitry Peskov about his reaction to Trump's comments.

"Russia, in general, and President Putin in particular, highly appreciate President Trump's political will to continue working towards a peaceful solution," Peskov responded.

Very diplomatic.

But, again, we've seen this before.

Often, when Trump posts or expresses unexpected criticism of Russia and/or Putin, the Kremlin takes a deep breath and responds with something a little calmer, more restrained than we might expect.

But why?

Today's edition of the Izvestiya newspaper suggests the first reason.

“It is important to remember that Trump is influenced by the last person he spoke to,” Izvestiya wrote. “In this case, it was Zelensky.”

In other words, Moscow believes that Donald Trump's views on Ukraine are not set in stone and that he can be persuaded to align with Russia's view.

“We will have the opportunity to convey our position to the American side,” Peskov tells me. “Our Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov can do that. He is meeting with his counterpart [US Secretary of State Marco Rubio] in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.”

There may be another reason why Russia doesn't feel the need to shout back.

President Trump's comments, however critical of Russia, contained no threat of additional sanctions; no ultimatum to Moscow; no deadline to make peace, or to face consequences.

The Kremlin will have noticed this.

Furthermore, when asked by a reporter whether he still trusts Vladimir Putin, Trump replied:

“I'll tell you about it in about a month.”

A month is a long time in war and politics. I doubt the Kremlin would flinch from such a response.

What about the threat to shoot down Russian planes?

Krellin's reaction: denial.

“We hear hysteria about our military pilots allegedly violating someone else’s rules and airspace,” Peskov tells me. “But all these allegations are baseless and unsubstantiated.”

Trump also painted a picture of a Russian economy in deep trouble.

The Kremlin denied this too.

But what is the state of Russia's economy?

It's not collapsing. But it's limping. Perhaps that's not surprising after more than three years of international sanctions and massive state spending on the war.

Russia's budget deficit has been growing, oil and gas revenues have been falling. Many branches of industry have been struggling.

Recent waves of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have affected domestic fuel supplies. Even in what is a highly controlled media landscape, Russian newspapers have reported gasoline shortages in some parts of the country.

“Russia is on the verge of a full-blown fuel crisis,” the tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets declared last month.

Yet there are no signs that economic pressures are affecting the Kremlin's calculations on the battlefield.

Russia's Finance Ministry on Wednesday proposed raising the VAT rate from 20% to 22% starting next year to help balance the state budget.

In a statement, the ministry said the increase would be aimed primarily at financing defense and security.

For now, Vladimir Putin seems determined to continue with the war in Ukraine, regardless of what Donald Trump may say about it.


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