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EBRD forecast for 2025, Albania expects economic growth of 3.7%

2025-02-27 13:00:14Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

EBRD forecast for 2025, Albania expects economic growth of 3.7%

Albania's economy will grow by 3.7% this year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said, leaving expectations unchanged compared to September 2024.

"The growth forecast of 3.7% for 2025 and 2026 is negative due to higher imports, and the current account deficit that widened compared to the first nine months of 2023," the report says.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its regional economic forecast for 2025 downward by 0.3 percentage points compared to its September 2024 outlook.

Growth in the Western Balkans is expected to remain stable at 3.6% in both 2025 and 2026. The downward revision for this year reflects the decline in external demand and domestic impacts from the weak performance of public investment projects and tight labor market conditions.

Growth across all economies where the Bank currently invests is expected to average 3.2% this year.

This downward revision stems mainly from weaker demand in Central Europe, the Baltic States and the south-eastern EU countries. The growth outlook also reflects the continuing impact of conflicts and the slow pace of reforms in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region.

Ukraine entered 2025 facing weaker economic performance and rising inflation. The bank has revised Ukraine's GDP downward this year as Russian attacks on electricity infrastructure continue to hamper production.

Ukraine's GDP growth is expected to reach 3.5% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026, assuming a ceasefire is achieved by the end of 2025.

A scenario in which the United States raises tariffs on all imports by an additional 10 percentage points could reduce GDP in EBRD regions by 0.1-0.2% in the short term.

While Jordan, the Slovak Republic, Hungary and Lithuania are some of the EBRD economies that are most vulnerable to these measures due to their exposure to the US market, the report shows.

The EBRD notes that inflation has fallen, easing consumption somewhat. Inflation has fallen from a peak of 17.5% in October 2022 to 5.9% in December 2024, still over 1 percentage point above its pre-pandemic average.

Growth in Central Europe and the Baltic States is forecast to reach 2.7% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026.

In southeastern EU countries, growth slowed to 1.5% in 2024, with weaker-than-expected performance./monitor


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