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War with Iran: Fuel market could enter the "red zone" this summer

2026-05-22 15:35:43Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Global oil markets could face a critical period during July and August, as ongoing tensions over the Iran crisis, falling inventories and a lack of new supplies from the Middle East are increasing pressure on the world economy.

The warning was made by the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, during a speech at the British institute Chatham House.

According to Birol, markets are approaching what he called the "red zone," as reserves are dwindling while fuel demand is expected to increase significantly during the summer travel season.

He said that one of the most important solutions to reduce the energy shock would be the full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - one of the most important routes for transporting oil in the world.

Birol stated that IEA member countries still have the opportunity to use more of their strategic oil reserves, recalling that some of them were used in March, while about 80% of the collective reserves still remain intact.

He warned that currently no new oil is coming from the Middle East, while demand is increasing due to the summer season.

"This could be a difficult moment and we could enter the red zone in July-August if we don't see improvements," he said.

The IEA director added that he has never seen such a strong impact of geopolitical developments on the energy sector before and warned that rising prices could be used politically by extremist forces in Europe.

According to him, the current shortage in the market amounts to about 14 million barrels of oil per day due to supply disruptions.

Birol estimated that restoring normal oil production could take at least a year and that some countries that depend on oil revenues - such as Iraq - may find it difficult to invest again in production capacities.

He added that the Middle East's reputation as a sustainable energy supplier has been damaged and that many countries will shift towards safer sources, including renewable and nuclear energy.


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