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ANALYSIS/ Why the "Cham factor" and small parties could be decisive for the outcome in Fier

2025-05-06 21:44:09Politikë SHKRUAR NGA GJERGJ EREBARA
ANALYSIS/ Why the "Cham factor" and small parties could be decisive
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The Socialist Party has lost ground in the Fier Region in the past elections, after peaking in 2017 with 10 mandates. However, even then, the tenth mandate came as a result of votes divided among the opposition parties, which makes this objective declared by them difficult. Things will depend, however, on the performance of the small parties as well as on the fact that on which side these parties will erode more.

The Fier region has over 400,000 voters and elects 16 members of parliament, making it the second largest region in the country after Tirana. And because of its size, in the May 11 elections in this region, it seems that small parties, such as the Social Democratic Party, the Albania Becomes Initiative or the Together Movement, are also active and hoping to win mandates.

The Fier region has traditionally voted left-wing, with the Socialist Party always being the leading force. But the fact that this is one of the regions with an even number of mandates makes it difficult to maximize narrow margins in mandates.

The best result for the Socialists dates back to the 2017 parliamentary elections, when they won 104,000 votes or 57% of the total. This was rewarded with 10 mandates, but the tenth mandate was the result of about 6,000 votes that a losing candidate from the Justice, Integration and Unity Party received from the traditional Democratic Party. The candidate in question is currently running for the Socialists.

The best result for the Democrats was in 2021, when they won almost 65,000 votes or 37%. This divided the total number of seats into 9 for the SP, 6 for the DP, and 1 for the SMI.

The Socialists have stated that in these elections, the tenth mandate in Fier is their objective, but for this to happen, they will have to receive even more votes than in 2017. The opposite, a rise of the opposition and a tie of 8 to 8 mandates also seems difficult. The DP and the SMI together received 77 thousand votes in the previous elections, compared to 91 thousand received by the Socialists.

In the 2009 elections, the SP coalition won 52% of the vote and 9 seats. The right-wing coalition won 40% of the vote and 6 seats, while the SMI won one seat with 6%. In 2013, the Socialists again won 9 seats, but the SMI increased its tally to two seats, and the DP shared all five seats of its coalition with the Justice, Integration and Unity Party, which won one seat.

Local factors and small parties are still expected to play a role in these elections, both as candidates seeking mandates and as forces whose votes could erode the mandates of the big ones.

The Cham factor seems to be an important factor in the game, this time, the current DP MP Nustret Avdulla, who was elected from the closed lists of the DP coalition from the ranks of the PDIU in 2021, tries his luck for the socialists by running from the open lists. Avdulla had received around 2,500 favorable votes in 2021 and if these votes go to the socialists, they are still not very significant in the result.

The Cham population usually votes against the SP, but in the 2021 elections, the alliance at the local level between the SP and several politicians claiming to represent this social group has been particularly productive for the Socialists in terms of mandates, especially in the Tirana and Elbasan regions. It remains to be seen whether this will also be the case in Fier.

The Bashke Movement will likely play a bigger role in the outcome than the Cham element for the Socialists. The party, which is competing for the first time, challenges the Socialists with a left-wing program in a left-wing area, and to demonstrate the importance it attaches to this region, this party held its opening campaign meeting in Fier. Its first candidate, Mirela Ruko, is the organizational secretary of Bashke Movement and is currently a member of the Tirana Municipal Council, after her party received over 7,000 votes in the 2023 local government council elections. If it wins, it is very likely that Bashke's mandate will be snatched from the Socialist Party.

It is not certain whether the Bashke Movement will manage to mobilize over 10 thousand votes needed to win a mandate, but in any case, no matter how few votes it receives, it is likely to receive them from traditional left-wing voters, which means that the Socialists will need an additional effort for the tenth mandate, and perhaps, if Bashke grabs 7 or 8 thousand of them in this district, they will have to maintain the ninth mandate, which could eventually fall into the lap of the opposition. This is of course balanced to some extent by the presence of several other small parties, which target the traditional right-wing electorate. Agron Shehaj's Opportunity Party, Basha's Euro-Atlantic Coalition and the Right for Development are all groups that emerged from the DP or partially from the DP. Their strength at the local level is difficult to understand.

In the end, the Albania Becomes Initiative seems to have eroded both sides of politics, but it is unclear which side's traditional supporters it eroded the most. The Thurrje Initiative received 921 votes or 0.5% when it ran in the district in the 2021 elections.

Tom Doshi's Social Democratic Party was profiled in the municipalities of the Fier region as a contender for a mandate in the 2023 elections. This party received 8,300 votes in the council races in the six municipalities of Fier and currently a number of public administration directors fill its candidate list. Its effect in the May 11 elections remains uncertain, however, because its candidate directors are being dismissed in Fier, which suggests that its socialist brother sees them as eroding its votes.

Demographic and social profile

The Fier region lies in a generally flat and hilly area, from the Adriatic coast to near Mount Shpirag in the west. The Vjosa River forms the southern border with the Vlora and Gjirokastër regions. The Myzeqe lowland constitutes the most important agricultural area of ​​Albania, while the region's territory contains most of Albania's oil fields, Marinza, Visoka and Cakran-Mollaj, the latter of which is almost completely depleted.

The city of Fier developed initially as a commercial center and then as an industrial center, a role it retains today, with the oil refining industry. The city of Lushnja had a similar history, a regional trade center expanded with the agri-food and plastics industries.

The town of Ballsh was built with prisoner labor during the communist era to house an oil refinery, which processed oil from the Cakran-Mollaj field and which currently no longer exists. The town of Patos also developed within the oil industry, while that of Roskovec existed as a market for the area.

Alongside agriculture, fishing plays a role in the local economy, especially in the Karavasta Lagoon.

Tourism is developed to a limited extent in the Divjaka and Karavasta areas, while Seman beach remains virgin.

The 2023 population census found 240,000 inhabitants in the territory of this region, of which 55% live in rural areas. The population has fallen by 22% since 2011 and by 37% since 2001. The dramatic decline in the population has also brought about its aging. At the regional level, four out of every ten voters are over 65 years old and the issue of low pensions is key. The city of Fier, once one of the most populous cities in the country, has fallen to 53,000 inhabitants currently, while the city of Lushnja has fallen to 26,000.

About 56% of the district's population lives in rural areas.

Candidates

A number of directors, generally associated with the Ministry of Economy and Energy, fill the Socialist Party's candidate lists. On the closed and safe list are ministers Belinda Balluku and Petrit Malaj, while further down the list are Kiduina Zaka, director of the health sector in Lushnja, Erjo Mile, director of the prime minister's office, and Ana Nako, director of a high school.

Ceno Klosi, former director of taxes, OSHEE and most recently, deputy minister of Balluk, is running for a mandate from the open lists alongside former democrat MP from the ranks of the PDIU, Nustret Avdulla or current MP Antoneta Dhima. Zegjine Çaushi, lawyer at the state-owned company Illyrian Guard in Tirana and former chief inspector at IKMT Roskovec is running alongside Zaira Gjika, director of DRAP Fier.

Current MPs Gazmend Bardhi and Luan Baçi lead the closed opposition list, which also includes Brunilda Haxhiu from the Freedom Party and Eduart Sharka from the Lushnja DP.

The Together Movement is led by Mirela Ruko and Elis Baba. The Opportunity Party list is led by Frida Mavriqi, a journalist, while the Social Democratic Party list is led by Stela Skënderaj./ BIRN

 


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