A poll conducted in nine countries reveals that half of people believe the risk of war with Russia is high and three-quarters want to stay in the EU.
Almost half of Europeans see Donald Trump as "an enemy of Europe", more rate the risk of war with Russia as high and more than two-thirds believe their country would be unable to defend itself in the event of such a war, a poll has found.
The poll, conducted in nine countries for the Paris-based European affairs debate platform Le Grand Continent, also found that almost three-quarters of respondents wanted their country to remain in the EU, with almost as many saying leaving the union had harmed the UK.
Jean-Yves Dormagen, a political science professor and founder of the polling agency Cluster17, said: “Europe is not only facing increasing risks, but is also undergoing a transformation of its historical, geopolitical and political environment.”
"The overall picture [of the survey] portrays a Europe that is anxious, that is deeply aware of its weaknesses and that is struggling to project itself positively into the future."
The poll found that an average of 48% of people in the nine countries see Trump as an open enemy – ranging from highs of 62% in Belgium and 57% in France to lows of 37% in Croatia and 19% in Poland.
“Across the continent, Trumpism is clearly considered a hostile force,” Dormagen said, adding that this perception was strengthening, with fewer people than in December 2024 describing Trump as “neither friend nor foe” and more as definitely hostile.
However, Europeans still see the relationship with the US as strategically important: when asked what stance the EU should take towards the US government, the most popular option (48%) was compromise.
The survey in France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium and the Netherlands also found that a relative majority (51%) thought the risk of an open war with Russia in the coming years was high, and 18% considered it very high.
Dormagen said such an outcome "would have been unimaginable just a few years ago and signals the shift in European opinion towards a new geopolitical regime in which the possibility of direct conflict on the continent is now widely accepted."
Views varied widely by proximity to Russia, with 77% of respondents in Poland considering the risk of war high, compared with 54% in France, 51% in Germany, 39% in Portugal and 34% in Italy.
Confidence in national military capabilities was low everywhere, the survey found, with 69% of respondents in nine countries saying they thought their country was "not really" or "not at all" capable of defending itself against Russian aggression.
French respondents were more confident, but this remained a minority opinion at 44%. In Poland, which shares a border with Russia, 58% were not.
Dormagen said: "We are entering an era of danger as we feel a persistent sense of national weakness."
Feelings of vulnerability were widespread, the survey found, with only 12% of respondents saying they did not feel particularly threatened by a range of sources of insecurity ranging from technology and the military to energy and food.
Although there were significant national differences, technological and digital security was the most cited threat (28%), followed by military security (25%). There was a strong demand for European assistance, with 69% of people saying the EU should play a defensive role.
The vast majority of respondents in the nine countries supported EU membership: 74% said they wanted their country to remain in the bloc, with this sentiment highest in Portugal (90%) and Spain (89%) and lowest in Poland (68%) and France (61%).
Five years after Brexit, the UK's decision to leave is overwhelmingly seen as a failure: 63% believed it had had a negative impact on Britain and only 19% thought it had been positive, including 5% who saw it as very positive./ The Guardian