Giorgia Meloni's government is expected to surpass Silvio Berlusconi's record for the longevity of a cabinet, but polls warn of a more fragmented scenario after the 2027 elections.
Giorgia Meloni is close to setting a new record in Italian politics, with her government expected to become the longest-lasting cabinet in Italy since World War II.
The Meloni-led government will surpass the record of 1,412 days, set by Silvio Berlusconi's government in 2005.
Meloni, who took office in October 2022, plans to hold a rally on September 4 to mark this achievement, presenting the coalition's sustainability as one of the main successes of her mandate.
Italy, which has had 68 governments in 80 years, has shown greater political stability during Meloni's term than some other European countries. But this stability could be called into question after the 2027 parliamentary elections.
Polls suggest the result could produce a more fragmented parliament, making it more difficult to create a stable majority.
According to analysts, one of the most important achievements of the Meloni government has been to improve investor confidence in Italy's public finances. The government has maintained budgetary discipline and has limited some of the costly policies of previous governments, including the "Superbonus" scheme for housing reconstruction.
At the same time, the government claims positive results in the labor market. According to Deputy Foreign Minister Edmondo Cirielli, during this period about 1.2 million jobs have been added, while unemployment has dropped below 6%.
However, economists assess that progress in structural reforms has been more limited. Public administration, health services and education have not undergone profound changes, while some of the institutional reforms proposed by the government have remained pending.
Another point where Meloni has sought to fulfill electoral promises is irregular immigration. The number of new arrivals has decreased significantly, from 157,651 in 2023 to 66,316 last year, according to data cited in the report.
But Meloni's position has also faced several setbacks. Domestically, Italians rejected her key justice reform in a referendum, damaging the coalition's image as politically invincible.
Meanwhile, on foreign policy, her relationship with US President Donald Trump has deteriorated. The clash between them came after Trump accused Meloni of lacking courage and disappointing the United States in the war with Iran.
In the run-up to the upcoming elections, another factor is shifting the political balance to the right. Roberto Vannacci, a former general and leader of a new far-right force, has significantly increased his support, capitalizing on concerns over immigration, security and cultural change.
A BiDiMedia poll published on August 26 put support for Vannacci at 8%, while the ruling coalition parties at 38.5%.
His rise could force Meloni to choose between including Vannacci in the conservative alliance or seeking a post-election deal. Both alternatives carry political risks.
For this reason, despite the new record he is expected to set, Meloni's path to another stable government seems more difficult.
"Markets have liked stability and are used to it, but this is Italy, it won't last forever," said economist Lorenzo Codogno.