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"The American Iron Dome reduces the nuclear threat, but fuels the arms race"

2025-02-05 23:53:11Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
An interceptor ballistic missile launched from Anderson Air Force Base in Guam in a test in December 2024.

US President Donald Trump's order to build an American version of the Iron Dome to protect the US from air strikes will deter China and Russia from threatening the United States with nuclear weapons, but it could spark a three-way arms race, analysts say.

On Friday, the government's Missile Defense Agency asked the defense industry to identify available technologies and capabilities to build an Iron Dome for America. The deadline for this is the end of February.

On January 27, President Trump signed an executive order setting out the requirement for the construction of the American Iron Dome.

The executive order stated that the United States would ensure the protection of all citizens and the nation by building a next-generation missile defense system.

The American Iron Dome will protect the United States "from ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and other next-generation air attacks from adversaries that have similar combat capabilities to the United States, adversaries with similar capabilities, and adversaries that pose a security threat," the statement said.

This system will enable the US to have the "capability to respond," meaning the ability to launch a nuclear counterattack.

The order also includes a review of the missile defense posture to identify ways for allies and partners of the United States to increase cooperation in missile defense development and undertaking operations.

Mr. Trump ordered Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to draft a plan over the next three months to build the missile shield.

Strengthening preventive capabilities

Robert Peters, a researcher on Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense at the Heritage Foundation, said in a telephone conversation on Thursday that Iron Dome for America would eliminate the possibility of a foreign actor using the nuclear threat to exert pressure on the United States, in addition to the fact that it would protect the country from a possible attack.

"We have the capabilities to build an Iron Dome," he said, adding that "there is no reason why we shouldn't do so, especially when we see autocrats in North Korea, China, and Russia engaging in nuclear threat."

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons during the war in Ukraine, which began with Moscow's large-scale attack in 2022.

In November, President Putin signed a new doctrine on criteria for when Moscow could respond with a nuclear response, after President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use long-range American weapons to attack military targets in Russia.

Under the revised doctrine, a conventional attack on Russia by any state supported by a nuclear power is considered a joint attack and could trigger a nuclear response. Previously, Russia reserved the right to use nuclear weapons only in the event of an attack that threatened the country's existence.

Patrycja Bazylczyk, a research associate at the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that "if implemented well, Iron Dome for America" ??could strengthen American defenses and could influence the strategic calculations of our adversaries.

She told Voice of America that "Improving the country's air and missile defenses would make it less likely that a potential country that intends to attack us would have confidence in the success of the attack," adding that "this would help prevent attacks."

The Iron Dome plan resembles former President Ronald Reagan's dual initiative for Strategic Defense and Nuclear Disarmament, says Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.

The program, known as "Star Wars," was announced in 1983 and aimed to develop a system to protect the United States from nuclear missiles.

The risk of an arms race

President Trump's "Iron Dome" initiative, to some extent, reflects his concern about nuclear weapons, but "a stronger American missile defense system would almost certainly make it more difficult to reach a nuclear agreement with Russia and China because of the mutual concern that more effective missile defense would increase the threat to their nuclear counterattack capabilities," Mr. Christensen continued.

During a video message at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 23, President Trump said he wants to discuss "nuclear disarmament" with Russia and that China should also join these discussions.

Mr. Christensen told VOA on Thursday that "the Federation of American Scientists welcomes Mr. Trump's statements on the need to place restrictions on nuclear weapons and possibly eliminate them and calls on the administration to work towards achieving these objectives."

He added, among other things, that nuclear reduction talks "are urgent, because the 'New Start' treaty expires in about 1 year."

The treaty between the United States and Russia to limit nuclear weapons, 'New START', expires in February 2026.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, told VOA that President Trump plans a "more ambitious system to deter strategic missile attacks from Russia or China than the efforts he made in 2019."

"It is unrealistic to believe that an effective system would be viable in the near future, primarily because adversaries will respond by making efforts to crack missile defense systems in order to maintain the ability to deter a conventional or nuclear strike by the United States," he said.

However, Mr. Kimball added that "We welcome Mr. Trump's interest in negotiating agreements with Russia and China to reduce the "extraordinary" costs of nuclear weapons, through negotiations on reducing nuclear arsenals with Russia and China. Without such an agreement, we would witness a three-way, costly nuclear arms race from which no one wins."

According to data from the Federation of American Scientists, the United States has about 5,044 nuclear warheads, Russia has over 5,500, and China has approximately 500 nuclear warheads.

The Pentagon wrote in its annual report on China's military assessment, released in December, that China could have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2020.

North Korea, through the state news agency KCNA, expressed opposition on Monday to the United States' plan to build the Iron Dome, calling it a "hegemonic attempt to maintain its military supremacy."

The Chinese Embassy in Washington told VOA on Monday that it had no comment on the matter.

A senior Russian diplomat quoted by the state-run Tass news agency on Thursday said that America's Iron Dome "ends the prospects for strategic reduction of the nuclear and missile arsenal and gives way to an increase in this arsenal in quantity and quality."

Richard Weitz, director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, said that "the Russians and the Chinese have always said that if the US builds better defenses, they will build better offensive capabilities so that they can overcome (American) defensive capabilities."

He told VOA on Thursday that the Iron Dome effort, along with President Trump's interest in nuclear reduction talks with China and Russia, is intended to reduce threats to the United States, but that it will be difficult to bring China to the table for nuclear disarmament talks./ VOA


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