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Analysis/ How important is Iran to Russia's war in Ukraine?

2026-02-09 09:30:09Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Iran has been an important supplier of military equipment to Russia in recent years, especially since the Kremlin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but experts have told Radio Free Europe that this support no longer plays a key role in Moscow's war effort.

According to a January 12 Bloomberg report, citing a Western security official who remained anonymous, Iranian missile sales to Russia, including air defense missiles and ballistic missiles, have reached $2.7 billion as of October 2021.

The volume of trade is not made public by Moscow, and Iran denies supplying Russia with anything.

"As long as the conflict continues between the parties, Iran will refrain from providing any form of military assistance to either side," said a statement from Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations in May last year.

There is evidence to the contrary, notably Russia's extensive use of Iranian Shahed attack drones in the early stages of the war against Ukraine. But the value of this support now appears to have diminished significantly.

"Although there are still some transfers of Iranian drones - at least until last year, some newer drone models were still being transferred from Iran - I think we have long passed the peak of Iranian defense transfers to Russia," Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told Radio Free Europe on January 14.

Ruslan Suleymanov, an analyst at the Center for New Eurasian Strategies, had a similar opinion.

“Russia is no longer as dependent on Iranian weapons as it was four years ago. The same Shahed drones are produced on Russian territory under the name Geran and… about 90 percent of the entire production cycle of these drones is now fully deployed in Russia, without the help of Iran,” he told Current Time on January 13.

Iran has provided Russia with technology and training, and a factory in Alabuga, in the Tatarstan region of Russia, is continuously producing Geran drones.

According to Ukraine, Russia produces about 5,000 long-range drones of various types every month. This includes the Geran strike drone and the Gerberan, a drone without a warhead that is used as a decoy to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

In April, General Christopher Cavoli, then head of US Central Command, told the US Senate Armed Services Committee that “Iran also continued its material support for Russia, donating over 400 short-range ballistic missiles and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells.”

In May, Reuters reported that Iran would also deliver Fath-360 missile launchers, although Tehran denied this. Earlier, in September 2024, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder had said that the Fath 360 missiles had been delivered.

This was followed in October 2024 by US sanctions on two Russian shipping companies for delivering drone equipment and ammunition across the Caspian Sea for use in Ukraine.

"The State Department is taking action today to further restrict Iran's destabilizing activities, including the transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia," a statement said.

The European Union followed suit a few days later, imposing sanctions on three Iranian airlines and two procurement companies "following the transfers of missiles and drones from Iran to Russia."

But there have been no reports of the use of the Fath 360 missile in Ukraine. Notte said that could be because the Fath 360 launchers were never delivered or because Russia did not need to use them as it increased domestic production and received deliveries from North Korea.

A report published in February last year by RUSI, a London-based think tank, noted that the Russian Defense Ministry planned to produce about 750 ballistic missiles and 560 cruise missiles by 2025. Since then, Ukrainian military intelligence has given even higher production estimates.

"The Russians may simply not have needed to use these Iranian missiles," Notte said.

It is estimated that Iran has been sending large quantities of ammunition and shells to Russia since 2022. A Wall Street Journal investigation in 2023 put the figures at 300,000 artillery shells and about 1 million rounds of ammunition.

Drone attacks on Ukraine in 2025 suggested that military supplies were continuing. In April, Russian media reported the first attacks on the Caspian port of Olya, followed by reports of further attacks in August.

Olja has been identified as a major hub for shipments of Iranian military supplies.

A report by the Kiev School of Economics last year detailed the volumes of explosives being shipped by ship and rail from both Iran and North Korea. The report said that supplies from North Korea now accounted for 58 percent of Russian explosives imports.

Notte said that, likewise, shells and ammunition from North Korea have greatly exceeded Iranian supplies.

"The Ukrainians estimated last year that 50 percent of all the ammunition that Russia used in Ukraine was from North Korea. So my feeling here is that, once North Korea emerged as a major military supplier to Russia, there was probably no need for Iranian ammunition," Notte said./ REL


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