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The natural gas market is a "minefield". What factors could raise prices and uncertainty again?

2024-06-22 13:29:50Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The natural gas market is a "minefield". What factors could raise

For the third year in a row this year, there are worries in the gas market about what summer, a time of calm, might bring. As the energy crisis has caused long-term damage, there is concern in the market about a series of risks that could cause a problem in fuel supply again. Sanctions on Russian LNG, any supply problems from Norway or any of those that have recently emerged as major energy suppliers to Europe are factors that could destabilize the natural gas market.

Last week, a Swedish court awarded German energy company Uniper more than 13 billion euros in damages for cutting off the flow of Russian gas and its aftermath. Since Gazprom is unlikely to pay compensation and has no assets of its own in Europe to seize, perhaps they will take it upon themselves not to pay the Russian company since many Europeans still receive Russian gas. In this case, Gazprom will cut off their fuel supply.

In addition, if the EU sanctions Russian LNG transfers through European ports, no one knows how Novatek, which has to stop inside Europe and change ships to be able to transport the fuel from the Arctic to other parts, might react. of the world. A relevant decision has not yet been taken, but intensive discussions are underway among member states on the details of the new sanctions package against Russia. Such a move would complicate matters as Russian LNG would likely be blocked within the EU as it would be extremely difficult to ship elsewhere.

A major destabilizing factor could be any sudden supply interruption from Norway, the country that has been Europe's main supplier of gas since Russia disappeared. A few days ago, a problem was recorded in the operation of a gas pipeline and it has interrupted the work of a large processing plant in the North Sea. The result was an immediate spike in fuel prices, making it clear how sensitive the market is to any supply disruption.

A number of works are expected in September, which are carried out every year in Norway, but can be a problem if something goes wrong just before the winter season and the increase in heating demand. However, so far, the market picture is not at all reminiscent of the volatility and uncertainty that prevailed in the summer of 2022, as Europe showed quick reflexes and took care in the first phase to limit destabilizing factors and ensure liquefied gas sufficiency .


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