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Euro touches the "red line", what is expected during the peak of the tourist season?

2024-05-11 10:31:30Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Euro touches the "red line", what is expected during the peak of the

The euro has dropped to 100 lek, thus crossing the "red line". This means that what was considered a hard currency is no longer so.

Strong exchange rate fluctuations have accelerated in recent weeks, warning of further declines during the tourist season, the Euro has closed this week at the level of 100.5 lek, or 11 lek less than the same period a year ago.

But the euro shocks have already started years ago, reflecting not only the developments in the international arena, but also the unusual developments of the domestic market.

The fall has been stronger especially after 2022. Meanwhile, compared to 6 years ago, the European currency has lost a full 27 ALL.

Euro in the same trajectory, fluctuates towards 100 lek, other currencies also towards decline

Such a situation has consequences in the economy, in conditions where the euro is the second most used currency in the country. From a weak euro, there are losers and winners.

Those who lose are depositors in this currency, all those who have income in euros, families who receive remittances from immigrant relatives, as well as exporters, whose activity is in euros and payments in lek. 

Those who benefit are the borrowers in euros, who will pay less for monthly installments; importers and traders who buy goods in euros and sell them in lek, their profit rate will increase and the government, which will pay less for foreign debt.

There are three main factors that, combined with each other, have caused the collapse of the European currency. First, geopolitical developments, which remain a constant risk; the increase of the money supply in euros, which means that there are many euros in circulation from formal and informal sources and the decrease of the money supply in lek, which means that there is little lek in the market and this has led to the disruption of the supply-demand balance .


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